Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook( Jul 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1978+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1981) (GL)
Jul6.8164.3436.8481.7184.12630.513
Jul-Aug16.32811.03410.0583.30110.04865.394
Jul-Sep24.70516.087NA4.48615.91180.337

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1052.02153.346
2043.90838.935
3038.80230.860
4034.37124.431
5030.44919.719
6026.52715.525
7023.09912.303
8019.1239.358
9014.2686.347

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
176.43696.151
270.06581.982
364.92476.511
461.69772.062
559.55268.798
657.66664.309
755.64061.192
854.17658.308
953.04555.463
1052.02153.346
1150.77551.603
1249.83549.695
1348.86248.259
1448.28246.829
1547.30545.268
1646.68144.039
1746.10842.613
1845.30641.174
1944.64739.917
2043.90838.935
2143.32537.993
2242.66036.951
2342.25636.228
2441.70335.182
2541.10534.531
2640.63033.973
2740.09233.130
2839.67132.465
2939.26431.697
3038.80230.860
3138.37530.100
3237.89929.336
3337.35328.737
3436.89128.150
3536.58927.353
3636.14026.721
3735.76426.096
3835.25425.518
3934.87225.046
4034.37124.431
4133.95523.842
4233.59823.409
4333.16323.046
4432.76022.552
4532.44522.110
4632.09121.620
4731.60221.178
4831.24120.607
4930.90020.179
5030.44919.719
5130.01519.305
5229.64818.894
5329.21318.418
5428.84917.966
5528.43817.512
5627.98116.967
5727.62416.648
5827.26716.328
5926.88815.979
6026.52715.525
6126.18015.077
6225.83414.752
6325.51714.452
6425.11514.086
6524.81813.803
6624.48313.516
6724.12713.249
6823.80812.904
6923.41212.553
7023.09912.303
7122.77311.962
7222.42111.691
7322.03111.376
7421.65311.096
7521.27010.789
7620.87310.516
7720.47210.221
7820.0029.950
7919.5339.693
8019.1239.358
8118.7589.045
8218.2318.750
8317.8268.418
8417.3658.142
8516.8827.904
8616.4017.586
8715.9867.261
8815.4177.000
8914.8756.690
9014.2686.347
9113.7516.030
9213.0045.658
9312.3165.264
9411.4404.789
9510.6714.450
969.8794.062
978.6473.498
987.5793.013
996.1182.447


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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