Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


Return to catchment list
Product list for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook



Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook ( Jan 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1978+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Jan2.0140.8640.6140.3611.2372.512
Jan-Feb3.6031.7461.2150.4222.7705.733
Jan-Mar5.5333.0302.1020.6094.93718.489

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103.6949.181
202.8616.446
302.3735.064
402.0104.022
501.7273.278
601.4502.621
701.1842.120
800.9341.654
900.6261.166

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
16.91819.746
25.87515.878
35.35814.464
44.93813.369
54.66812.563
64.39911.540
74.15810.847
83.94810.217
93.8219.616
103.6949.181
113.5828.830
123.4928.455
133.3948.174
143.2937.896
153.2087.600
163.1257.373
173.0527.108
182.9986.844
192.9236.619
202.8616.446
212.8016.281
222.7416.093
232.6885.974
242.6395.792
252.5905.683
262.5505.589
272.5025.442
282.4625.329
292.4195.205
302.3735.064
312.3284.940
322.2894.811
332.2484.713
342.2124.622
352.1834.489
362.1494.390
372.1164.288
382.0774.197
392.0424.120
402.0104.022
411.9823.928
421.9533.860
431.9283.801
441.8923.724
451.8653.655
461.8383.576
471.8123.508
481.7863.418
491.7583.350
501.7273.278
511.7023.213
521.6733.150
531.6423.074
541.6113.005
551.5842.931
561.5532.849
571.5292.799
581.5042.748
591.4772.694
601.4502.621
611.4282.553
621.4052.503
631.3702.456
641.3462.400
651.3242.355
661.2952.310
671.2692.269
681.2382.215
691.2132.159
701.1842.120
711.1642.066
721.1432.024
731.1201.974
741.0931.930
751.0621.881
761.0341.838
771.0141.791
780.9891.748
790.9581.707
800.9341.654
810.9081.604
820.8811.557
830.8471.503
840.8151.459
850.7811.420
860.7491.369
870.7211.316
880.6961.273
890.6601.222
900.6261.166
910.5771.113
920.5181.052
930.4640.986
940.3970.906
950.3430.848
960.2780.781
970.1950.684
980.0650.598
990.0000.497


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence