Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tarcutta Creek at Westbrook ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1978+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1984) (GL)
Jan1.9720.3603.2530.3610.7518.726
Jan-Feb3.2080.9518.8620.4221.43112.774
Jan-Mar4.3771.95212.7820.6091.94016.243

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1014.4459.181
2012.4856.446
3011.1615.064
4010.1884.022
509.2663.278
608.4752.621
707.6042.120
806.5791.654
905.2821.166

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
121.55619.746
218.91515.878
317.73214.464
417.02613.369
516.39612.563
615.93411.540
715.48710.847
815.05410.217
914.7809.616
1014.4459.181
1114.1428.830
1213.8548.455
1313.6598.174
1413.4597.896
1513.2697.600
1613.0957.373
1712.9457.108
1812.7666.844
1912.6296.619
2012.4856.446
2112.3106.281
2212.1666.093
2312.0495.974
2411.8925.792
2511.7525.683
2611.6145.589
2711.4825.442
2811.3625.329
2911.2625.205
3011.1615.064
3111.0544.940
3210.9524.811
3310.8684.713
3410.7884.622
3510.6934.489
3610.5654.390
3710.4614.288
3810.3794.197
3910.2934.120
4010.1884.022
4110.0953.928
4210.0093.860
439.9143.801
449.8253.724
459.7273.655
469.6363.576
479.5513.508
489.4463.418
499.3443.350
509.2663.278
519.1793.213
529.0903.150
539.0183.074
548.9353.005
558.8542.931
568.7762.849
578.6992.799
588.6162.748
598.5432.694
608.4752.621
618.3982.553
628.2862.503
638.1912.456
648.1032.400
658.0332.355
667.9722.310
677.8882.269
687.8032.215
697.6892.159
707.6042.120
717.5402.066
727.4392.024
737.3241.974
747.2331.930
757.1461.881
767.0401.838
776.9231.791
786.8301.748
796.7151.707
806.5791.654
816.4801.604
826.3391.557
836.2111.503
846.1161.459
855.9931.420
865.8661.369
875.7271.316
885.6011.273
895.4491.222
905.2821.166
915.1561.113
924.9931.052
934.7420.986
944.5120.906
954.3140.848
963.9240.781
973.5910.684
983.1460.598
992.5830.497


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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