Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


Return to catchment list
Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1030.00728.885
2024.45423.269
3021.16919.711
4018.38916.532
5016.20513.933
6014.11611.378
7012.2179.239
8010.1747.148
907.6034.890

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
147.11343.453
242.23038.793
338.97436.966
436.80735.464
535.31634.351
634.06732.800
732.83831.708
831.66730.684
930.77929.658
1030.00728.885
1129.24528.240
1228.61327.525
1327.93726.980
1427.30026.432
1526.81425.826
1626.17925.342
1725.65824.774
1825.26724.192
1924.91923.677
2024.45423.269
2124.04422.873
2223.76622.431
2323.40422.120
2423.14121.665
2522.79921.378
2622.41121.131
2722.06620.753
2821.78820.451
2921.51120.100
3021.16919.711
3120.88419.354
3220.63318.990
3320.34018.701
3419.93318.416
3519.65918.023
3619.35117.708
3719.09317.392
3818.77517.096
3918.58616.853
4018.38916.532
4118.15516.221
4217.95715.990
4317.75915.795
4417.53115.526
4517.25715.284
4617.02115.013
4716.78714.766
4816.60514.443
4916.38214.198
5016.20513.933
5116.05313.691
5215.81713.450
5315.63913.166
5415.39412.895
5515.19212.619
5615.01712.284
5714.79412.086
5814.58511.886
5914.31811.666
6014.11611.378
6113.93511.090
6213.73010.879
6313.54810.683
6413.38410.442
6513.15110.254
6612.96410.063
6712.7679.884
6812.6139.651
6912.4029.411
7012.2179.239
7112.0119.004
7211.8088.816
7311.5888.595
7411.3658.398
7511.1668.180
7610.9507.986
7710.7797.774
7810.5877.579
7910.3817.392
8010.1747.148
819.8986.919
829.7206.702
839.4846.455
849.2936.249
859.0746.071
868.7745.832
878.5435.586
888.2165.389
897.9715.152
907.6034.890
917.3664.647
927.0344.360
936.6714.055
946.2913.686
955.8683.422
965.4983.119
974.9202.679
984.4182.300
993.5921.858


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence