Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1024.02631.460
2019.93923.966
3017.09119.600
4014.72915.980
5012.96513.213
6011.32010.643
709.7618.581
808.1086.613
906.1474.493

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
138.74153.007
234.16745.911
331.86743.167
429.93740.933
528.23639.291
627.27537.028
726.24635.452
825.58033.990
924.75232.541
1024.02631.460
1123.49830.567
1223.13029.586
1322.67928.845
1422.11928.105
1521.66827.294
1621.28026.653
1721.01425.907
1820.63425.150
1920.28924.487
2019.93923.966
2119.61523.464
2219.32622.908
2318.98422.520
2418.69221.957
2518.40921.605
2618.11921.303
2717.88020.844
2817.62820.481
2917.30620.060
3017.09119.600
3116.83819.180
3216.61818.755
3316.35418.421
3416.14218.093
3515.90017.644
3615.67017.287
3715.42216.932
3815.22416.603
3914.96016.333
4014.72915.980
4114.54015.640
4214.36815.389
4314.18015.178
4414.00814.889
4513.86514.631
4613.68714.342
4713.51414.082
4813.34213.743
4913.16213.488
5012.96513.213
5112.81412.964
5212.67512.716
5312.50212.427
5412.30312.152
5512.13311.875
5611.93711.540
5711.79311.342
5811.63111.144
5911.47310.927
6011.32010.643
6111.18010.361
6210.98410.156
6310.8229.966
6410.6889.733
6510.5269.552
6610.3699.368
6710.2189.196
6810.0488.973
699.9188.745
709.7618.581
719.6318.358
729.4648.180
739.3097.972
749.1407.786
758.9667.581
768.7937.398
778.6337.200
788.4537.017
798.2726.842
808.1086.613
817.9316.399
827.7666.196
837.5635.965
847.4095.772
857.2325.606
866.9855.381
876.7545.150
886.5494.964
896.3484.741
906.1474.493
915.9134.261
925.7023.987
935.3503.694
945.0353.336
954.7003.077
964.3672.778
973.8972.335
983.3601.947
992.7701.482


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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