Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1015.39027.061
2012.57519.765
3010.61615.823
409.20812.713
508.06310.417
607.0558.337
706.0546.694
805.0735.138
903.8903.466

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
125.84851.278
222.34442.883
320.36939.730
419.05837.208
518.33235.383
617.62432.911
716.95531.220
816.45229.675
915.81628.169
1015.39027.061
1115.04326.156
1214.63225.173
1314.32324.438
1414.00623.710
1513.81422.921
1613.58522.303
1713.29521.589
1813.07020.873
1912.81720.250
2012.57519.765
2112.29619.301
2212.03918.790
2311.81918.435
2411.63017.924
2511.42817.606
2611.29017.335
2711.11116.925
2810.96116.602
2910.80616.229
3010.61615.823
3110.45915.456
3210.32615.086
3310.17814.796
3410.04014.512
359.86114.127
369.71913.821
379.58213.519
389.42813.239
399.31913.011
409.20812.713
419.10612.427
428.97012.217
438.84812.041
448.71211.801
458.57011.586
468.46411.347
478.37311.132
488.27110.852
498.17910.643
508.06310.417
517.94610.214
527.86110.012
537.7489.777
547.6559.554
557.5699.329
567.4509.058
577.3378.899
587.2548.739
597.1428.564
607.0558.337
616.9468.111
626.8527.947
636.7657.795
646.6587.609
656.5637.465
666.4707.318
676.3657.182
686.2657.004
696.1806.823
706.0546.694
715.9716.517
725.8816.376
735.7876.211
745.6866.064
755.5745.902
765.4885.758
775.3755.601
785.2635.457
795.1825.319
805.0735.138
814.9834.969
824.8724.809
834.7854.627
844.6704.476
854.5424.344
864.3964.167
874.2723.985
884.1363.838
894.0003.662
903.8903.466
913.7583.283
923.6473.066
933.4582.834
943.3002.550
953.0882.345
962.8662.106
972.5891.753
982.3671.441
991.7481.065


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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