Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
108.36122.919
206.69016.033
305.78012.451
405.0629.722
504.4447.778
603.9196.075
703.4394.778
802.9033.594
902.2802.379

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
113.94846.533
212.10938.327
310.99435.240
410.33332.772
59.80630.989
69.45228.578
79.09626.934
88.82225.438
98.59123.984
108.36122.919
118.20622.052
127.96021.113
137.72620.414
147.58319.724
157.38618.979
167.22918.397
177.08717.729
186.95317.060
196.81816.482
206.69016.033
216.58715.605
226.51015.135
236.40714.811
246.28714.345
256.20814.056
266.09713.810
276.01313.439
285.93313.148
295.83912.814
305.78012.451
315.70412.123
325.62311.795
335.54711.539
345.46511.289
355.38610.950
365.33010.683
375.26610.420
385.19010.177
395.1269.979
405.0629.722
414.9999.477
424.9439.297
434.8729.147
444.8118.942
454.7568.759
464.6958.557
474.6118.376
484.5578.141
494.5177.966
504.4447.778
514.3937.609
524.3427.441
534.2777.247
544.2167.064
554.1736.879
564.1236.658
574.0766.529
584.0216.399
593.9736.258
603.9196.075
613.8715.894
623.8205.763
633.7705.642
643.7175.495
653.6635.381
663.6265.265
673.5835.158
683.5345.020
693.4824.878
703.4394.778
713.3854.641
723.3384.532
733.2894.405
743.2504.293
753.1924.169
763.1424.060
773.0913.941
783.0193.832
792.9563.729
802.9033.594
812.8513.468
822.7903.350
832.7273.216
842.6713.104
852.6263.009
862.5662.880
872.5052.749
882.4412.643
892.3582.518
902.2802.379
912.2122.250
922.1292.099
932.0581.939
941.9691.744
951.8521.606
961.7391.446
971.6061.214
981.4221.013
991.2050.777


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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