Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1018.85627.061
2015.30219.765
3013.15915.823
4011.38312.713
5010.00710.417
608.8058.337
707.6066.694
806.3735.138
904.9473.466

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
130.94051.278
227.06342.883
324.87239.730
423.24037.208
522.37335.383
621.57832.911
720.78731.220
820.15229.675
919.44828.169
1018.85627.061
1118.34426.156
1217.95825.173
1317.50824.438
1417.24223.710
1516.82222.921
1616.50922.303
1716.19721.589
1815.87820.873
1915.57220.250
2015.30219.765
2115.06819.301
2214.84218.790
2314.57018.435
2414.34717.924
2514.13317.606
2613.85217.335
2713.69616.925
2813.47816.602
2913.30716.229
3013.15915.823
3112.95715.456
3212.77715.086
3312.56014.796
3412.41314.512
3512.18214.127
3612.00313.821
3711.81113.519
3811.64613.239
3911.52313.011
4011.38312.713
4111.22612.427
4211.07312.217
4310.91612.041
4410.77811.801
4510.64811.586
4610.50811.347
4710.38411.132
4810.24810.852
4910.12910.643
5010.00710.417
519.83810.214
529.73210.012
539.6079.777
549.4879.554
559.3629.329
569.2599.058
579.1278.899
589.0228.739
598.9318.564
608.8058.337
618.6618.111
628.5537.947
638.4387.795
648.3257.609
658.1807.465
668.0747.318
677.9587.182
687.8487.004
697.7146.823
707.6066.694
717.4826.517
727.3536.376
737.2276.211
747.1266.064
757.0225.902
766.9005.758
776.7755.601
786.6465.457
796.4805.319
806.3735.138
816.2584.969
826.1234.809
835.9794.627
845.8564.476
855.6694.344
865.5184.167
875.3653.985
885.2553.838
895.1003.662
904.9473.466
914.7953.283
924.6083.066
934.4312.834
944.2342.550
953.9772.345
963.7262.106
973.4231.753
983.0631.441
992.5331.065


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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