Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


Return to catchment list
Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd



Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd ( Feb 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103.1937.964
202.5325.443
302.1364.236
401.8273.346
501.5902.720
601.3702.172
701.1701.753
800.9361.367
900.6500.964

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
15.59820.762
24.66415.310
34.30813.583
44.02012.307
53.83011.439
63.65910.327
73.5089.608
83.3888.977
93.2988.386
103.1937.964
113.0987.628
123.0107.271
132.9467.009
142.8846.755
152.8076.483
162.7406.274
172.6836.036
182.6315.800
192.5695.599
202.5325.443
212.4885.296
222.4485.136
232.4085.026
242.3724.868
252.3254.771
262.2934.688
272.2604.564
282.2224.467
292.1744.356
302.1364.236
312.1044.128
322.0744.021
332.0423.937
342.0123.855
351.9703.744
361.9343.657
371.9063.572
381.8833.493
391.8483.429
401.8273.346
411.8033.267
421.7813.209
431.7533.160
441.7303.094
451.7073.035
461.6812.970
471.6572.912
481.6352.836
491.6182.780
501.5902.720
511.5652.665
521.5452.611
531.5252.549
541.5052.490
551.4812.431
561.4562.360
571.4352.318
581.4082.277
591.3912.231
601.3702.172
611.3522.114
621.3302.072
631.3162.033
641.2961.985
651.2741.948
661.2551.911
671.2341.877
681.2131.832
691.1911.786
701.1701.753
711.1501.709
721.1271.674
731.1011.632
741.0771.596
751.0521.556
761.0281.520
771.0061.481
780.9811.445
790.9581.411
800.9361.367
810.9151.326
820.8881.287
830.8621.243
840.8411.206
850.8131.174
860.7851.131
870.7601.088
880.7211.053
890.6891.011
900.6500.964
910.6180.921
920.5900.870
930.5540.815
940.5010.749
950.4400.701
960.3870.646
970.3290.566
980.2370.495
990.1240.411


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence