Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd



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Exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd ( Jan  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101.7098.059
201.3345.569
301.1074.350
400.9233.438
500.7812.787
600.6602.208
700.5421.763
800.4181.344
900.2780.898

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
13.11020.068
22.71915.063
32.44513.436
42.28812.239
52.12511.390
62.01310.345
71.9169.657
81.8259.043
91.7668.469
101.7098.059
111.6617.731
121.6167.384
131.5757.126
141.5236.872
151.4906.604
161.4596.398
171.4286.160
181.3975.923
191.3725.723
201.3345.569
211.3045.422
221.2805.256
231.2535.151
241.2354.990
251.2204.894
261.1984.811
271.1674.682
281.1494.582
291.1274.473
301.1074.350
311.0844.241
321.0644.128
331.0484.043
341.0313.963
351.0083.847
360.9923.760
370.9743.671
380.9563.591
390.9393.524
400.9233.438
410.9113.356
420.8963.296
430.8833.245
440.8703.177
450.8563.117
460.8403.048
470.8252.988
480.8122.910
490.7972.849
500.7812.787
510.7692.730
520.7572.674
530.7432.607
540.7302.547
550.7192.481
560.7062.409
570.6932.365
580.6802.320
590.6692.273
600.6602.208
610.6492.148
620.6372.104
630.6262.061
640.6112.012
650.5971.972
660.5881.933
670.5781.895
680.5651.847
690.5551.798
700.5421.763
710.5291.715
720.5191.677
730.5081.632
740.4971.593
750.4851.549
760.4731.510
770.4591.468
780.4481.429
790.4341.392
800.4181.344
810.4051.299
820.3951.256
830.3841.207
840.3701.167
850.3561.132
860.3431.085
870.3261.036
880.3090.997
890.2950.950
900.2780.898
910.2600.850
920.2360.792
930.2150.731
940.1950.656
950.1730.602
960.1450.539
970.1060.446
980.0560.364
990.0000.265


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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