Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.7401.549
Median2.5082.787
Mean2.8363.896
75% Quartile3.5614.892
Interquartile Range1.8213.343

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18.08120.068
27.14215.063
36.56213.436
46.03412.239
55.80011.390
65.55310.345
75.3109.657
85.1169.043
94.9498.469
104.8038.059
114.6687.731
124.5577.384
134.4297.126
144.3326.872
154.2536.604
164.1686.398
174.1026.160
184.0195.923
193.9555.723
203.8815.569
213.8115.422
223.7315.256
233.6675.151
243.6084.990
253.5624.894
263.5104.811
273.4674.682
283.4204.582
293.3564.473
303.2894.350
313.2434.241
323.1994.128
333.1494.043
343.1033.963
353.0633.847
363.0183.760
372.9833.671
382.9443.591
392.9033.524
402.8633.438
412.8233.356
422.7843.296
432.7393.245
442.7013.177
452.6793.117
462.6413.048
472.6012.988
482.5632.910
492.5342.849
502.5082.787
512.4722.730
522.4362.674
532.4082.607
542.3762.547
552.3482.481
562.3142.409
572.2782.365
582.2532.320
592.2272.273
602.1942.208
612.1682.148
622.1342.104
632.1052.061
642.0782.012
652.0531.972
662.0211.933
672.0011.895
681.9691.847
691.9351.798
701.9061.763
711.8761.715
721.8471.677
731.8111.632
741.7731.593
751.7401.549
761.7101.510
771.6811.468
781.6421.429
791.6091.392
801.5861.344
811.5481.299
821.5131.256
831.4801.207
841.4401.167
851.4101.132
861.3751.085
871.3391.036
881.2950.997
891.2510.950
901.2140.898
911.1760.850
921.1310.792
931.0910.731
941.0260.656
950.9560.602
960.8900.539
970.8090.446
980.7300.364
990.5750.265


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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