Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.9492.150
Median3.0073.624
Mean3.5234.950
75% Quartile4.5726.127
Interquartile Range2.6233.977

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
111.50824.215
210.03118.217
38.95716.289
48.36414.855
57.76013.873
67.37112.609
77.05111.786
86.79711.062
96.57710.379
106.3589.891
116.1429.500
125.9939.084
135.8588.778
145.6878.480
155.5548.161
165.4317.915
175.3287.634
185.1957.355
195.0897.116
204.9766.931
214.9006.756
224.8086.564
234.7296.433
244.6456.244
254.5746.127
264.4766.028
274.3995.879
284.3145.762
294.2435.629
304.1625.484
314.0925.353
324.0265.222
333.9575.120
343.8965.021
353.8204.886
363.7594.780
373.6844.675
383.6314.579
393.5764.501
403.5254.399
413.4594.301
423.3964.230
433.3414.170
443.2894.088
453.2234.016
463.1683.935
473.1363.863
483.0863.769
493.0553.699
503.0073.624
512.9683.556
522.9203.489
532.8673.411
542.8143.338
552.7763.263
562.7273.174
572.6813.122
582.6443.070
592.6053.012
602.5632.938
612.5052.864
622.4592.811
632.4152.761
642.3782.701
652.3382.654
662.2982.607
672.2632.562
682.2122.505
692.1732.447
702.1302.405
712.0902.348
722.0492.302
732.0192.250
741.9862.202
751.9482.150
761.9212.104
771.8832.054
781.8262.008
791.7831.964
801.7401.906
811.7021.852
821.6511.801
831.6011.744
841.5551.695
851.5031.653
861.4461.597
871.3951.540
881.3501.493
891.2991.437
901.2351.375
911.1791.318
921.1101.249
931.0381.176
940.9641.087
950.8801.022
960.8020.947
970.6750.836
980.5350.738
990.3820.621


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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