Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile4.4314.804
Median6.7697.988
Mean8.14210.740
75% Quartile10.25113.324
Interquartile Range5.8208.520

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
128.63050.825
224.11538.518
321.15834.542
419.50231.576
518.66329.540
617.65826.916
716.58325.203
815.99723.693
915.35822.267
1014.66421.246
1114.17420.428
1213.72519.556
1313.32618.914
1413.01118.288
1512.63817.617
1612.37517.098
1712.01516.507
1811.76815.919
1911.56015.414
2011.33915.025
2111.08014.654
2210.85414.250
2310.64013.971
2410.42913.571
2510.25113.325
2610.08413.114
279.88812.798
289.74012.551
299.54812.267
309.38311.959
319.24611.681
329.04511.403
338.91811.186
348.79010.974
358.67310.688
368.51710.461
378.37710.238
388.22710.033
398.0709.865
407.9529.647
417.8369.439
427.6949.286
437.5669.158
447.4628.984
457.3448.828
467.2318.656
477.1218.501
487.0028.300
496.8888.150
506.7697.988
516.6757.843
526.5307.699
536.4217.531
546.3157.372
556.2157.213
566.1247.021
576.0096.908
585.9136.795
595.8296.672
605.7466.511
615.6406.352
625.5496.236
635.4616.129
645.3665.999
655.2895.897
665.2015.794
675.1235.699
685.0525.575
694.9635.448
704.8845.357
714.7805.233
724.7005.135
734.6065.020
744.5314.917
754.4304.804
764.3214.704
774.2394.594
784.1504.494
794.0534.397
803.9504.272
813.8564.154
823.7654.043
833.6493.916
843.5623.811
853.4743.719
863.3623.596
873.2673.469
883.1933.367
893.0593.245
902.9543.108
912.8062.981
922.6682.830
932.5452.669
942.3952.471
952.2092.328
962.0192.161
971.8221.914
981.6161.696
991.2641.432


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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