Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile6.5366.809
Median9.51311.166
Mean10.93914.479
75% Quartile13.80418.234
Interquartile Range7.26811.425

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
133.43962.035
229.09048.740
325.82544.220
423.91440.778
522.31038.380
621.41935.245
720.71233.174
820.03831.330
919.39729.575
1018.92228.309
1118.40027.290
1217.89626.198
1317.45125.391
1417.03424.600
1516.71423.751
1616.33823.091
1715.91222.337
1815.60721.585
1915.21720.937
2014.97220.435
2114.71619.958
2214.47719.434
2314.24819.074
2414.03818.555
2513.80418.234
2613.58517.960
2713.36117.548
2813.12617.224
2912.93016.852
3012.78716.448
3112.59616.083
3212.35415.717
3312.16115.431
3411.96115.152
3511.81314.773
3611.61714.473
3711.49714.177
3811.31913.904
3911.14313.681
4011.01713.391
4110.85113.113
4210.70312.909
4310.54012.737
4410.41212.504
4510.27212.296
4610.11212.065
479.93911.856
489.79211.586
499.65311.384
509.51311.166
519.38910.970
529.26710.775
539.15310.548
549.02910.333
558.93010.116
568.8069.855
578.7049.702
588.5699.548
598.4679.379
608.3329.160
618.2068.942
628.0768.784
637.9658.638
647.8318.458
657.6998.319
667.5888.178
677.5048.046
687.3827.875
697.2547.700
707.1367.575
717.0437.404
726.9057.267
736.7767.108
746.6586.966
756.5356.808
766.4176.668
776.2856.516
786.1716.376
796.0526.242
805.9526.066
815.8105.901
825.6725.745
835.5475.567
845.4255.419
855.2875.290
865.1315.116
875.0114.937
884.8534.792
894.7054.618
904.5144.425
914.3354.243
924.1454.028
933.9543.796
943.7603.512
953.4603.305
963.2013.064
972.9092.704
982.5782.385
992.0551.996


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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