Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile8.6818.181
Median12.89313.933
Mean14.37215.632
75% Quartile18.43621.378
Interquartile Range9.75413.198

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
140.64343.453
235.78138.793
332.30636.966
431.01835.464
529.44934.351
628.36732.800
727.25331.708
826.16030.684
925.33829.658
1024.77928.885
1124.16128.240
1223.44927.525
1322.89326.980
1422.44526.432
1521.99825.826
1621.54725.342
1721.08324.774
1820.73524.192
1920.29523.677
2019.94923.269
2119.57922.873
2219.30422.431
2319.02422.120
2418.75621.665
2518.44021.378
2618.17521.131
2717.92220.753
2817.65020.451
2917.41220.100
3017.13819.711
3116.83919.354
3216.57818.990
3316.33918.701
3416.08318.416
3515.81118.023
3615.57817.708
3715.34317.392
3815.12217.096
3914.91316.853
4014.71916.532
4114.53616.221
4214.35715.990
4314.15915.795
4413.94115.526
4513.77615.284
4613.63915.013
4713.44214.766
4813.21814.443
4913.01614.198
5012.89313.933
5112.69613.691
5212.50613.450
5312.35313.166
5412.16012.895
5512.01712.619
5611.87012.284
5711.65612.086
5811.50411.886
5911.30611.666
6011.16411.378
6110.97011.090
6210.80610.879
6310.67410.683
6410.50810.442
6510.33710.254
6610.17910.063
6710.0049.884
689.8789.651
699.6939.411
709.5389.239
719.3589.004
729.2018.816
739.0458.595
748.8558.398
758.6818.180
768.5107.986
778.3407.774
788.1897.579
798.0077.392
807.8167.148
817.6426.919
827.4636.702
837.2916.455
847.1326.249
856.9256.071
866.7345.832
876.5155.586
886.2625.389
896.0255.152
905.8024.890
915.5364.647
925.2844.360
935.0204.055
944.6913.686
954.3333.422
964.0413.119
973.6042.679
983.1932.300
992.5091.858


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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