Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile10.1717.581
Median14.59313.213
Mean16.25515.969
75% Quartile20.73421.605
Interquartile Range10.56314.023

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
143.53253.007
238.41745.911
335.74043.167
433.50040.933
531.74539.291
630.56637.028
729.48035.452
828.58233.990
927.91632.541
1027.26131.460
1126.59830.567
1225.96929.586
1325.37928.845
1424.97328.105
1524.51127.294
1623.99826.653
1723.50625.907
1823.11025.150
1922.65724.487
2022.34823.966
2122.02723.464
2221.68422.908
2321.40122.520
2421.07221.957
2520.74221.605
2620.35721.303
2720.10320.844
2819.86820.481
2919.51120.060
3019.20419.600
3118.96219.180
3218.69618.755
3318.47618.421
3418.26818.093
3518.03417.644
3617.79617.287
3717.51216.932
3817.22416.603
3916.97016.333
4016.74215.980
4116.46915.640
4216.20215.389
4315.92815.178
4415.72814.889
4515.53914.631
4615.36914.342
4715.15114.082
4814.96813.743
4914.77313.488
5014.59313.213
5114.46612.964
5214.27612.716
5314.13212.427
5413.96312.152
5513.75711.875
5613.60111.540
5713.43411.342
5813.27511.144
5913.12010.927
6012.94710.643
6112.77910.361
6212.57510.156
6312.3789.966
6412.1959.733
6512.0229.552
6611.8579.368
6711.6589.196
6811.4468.973
6911.3118.745
7011.0988.581
7110.9398.358
7210.7618.180
7310.5967.972
7410.3897.786
7510.1677.581
7610.0057.398
779.8157.200
789.6437.017
799.4756.842
809.2926.613
819.0856.399
828.8856.196
838.6665.965
848.4845.772
858.2945.606
868.0535.381
877.8665.150
887.6344.964
897.3974.741
907.0014.493
916.7114.261
926.5533.987
936.2953.694
945.9903.336
955.5553.077
965.1082.778
974.7022.335
984.1101.947
993.1751.482


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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