Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.3341.946
Median1.9493.599
Mean2.2795.052
75% Quartile2.8636.449
Interquartile Range1.5294.503

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
17.35624.909
26.19019.424
35.69317.515
45.24616.048
54.89415.022
64.68513.678
74.46812.789
84.26111.998
94.09411.245
103.96510.703
113.86410.267
123.7489.801
133.6529.458
143.5649.122
153.4968.762
163.4148.482
173.3528.164
183.2857.848
193.2117.576
203.1417.366
213.0817.166
223.0316.948
232.9736.798
242.9166.582
252.8636.450
262.8166.336
272.7636.166
282.7146.033
292.6685.880
302.6185.715
312.5845.566
322.5275.417
332.4965.300
342.4595.187
352.4215.033
362.3864.912
372.3474.793
382.3164.683
392.2864.594
402.2604.478
412.2224.367
422.1834.286
432.1544.218
442.1174.125
452.0884.043
462.0583.951
472.0303.869
482.0023.763
491.9783.684
501.9493.599
511.9113.522
521.8873.446
531.8653.358
541.8353.275
551.8123.191
561.7863.091
571.7593.032
581.7342.973
591.7062.909
601.6862.825
611.6622.742
621.6412.682
631.6132.627
641.5862.559
651.5672.507
661.5452.454
671.5192.404
681.4982.340
691.4772.275
701.4542.229
711.4332.165
721.4102.115
731.3852.056
741.3592.004
751.3341.946
761.3111.895
771.2851.839
781.2581.788
791.2291.740
801.2051.676
811.1731.617
821.1461.561
831.1271.498
841.0991.445
851.0771.399
861.0491.338
871.0191.275
880.9811.224
890.9471.164
900.9191.097
910.8791.034
920.8470.960
930.8090.882
940.7630.786
950.7130.717
960.6500.637
970.5900.519
980.5110.417
990.4120.294


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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