Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd



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Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd ( Mar 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.5642.150
Median2.4623.624
Mean2.9054.950
75% Quartile3.8006.127
Interquartile Range2.2353.977

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
19.73524.215
28.41518.217
37.60616.289
47.05814.855
56.55713.873
66.20712.609
75.91111.786
85.70711.062
95.50310.379
105.3319.891
115.1569.500
125.0219.084
134.8948.778
144.7488.480
154.6178.161
164.5287.915
174.4307.634
184.3317.355
194.2527.116
204.1526.931
214.0736.756
223.9896.564
233.9396.433
243.8646.244
253.8006.127
263.7116.028
273.6515.879
283.5805.762
293.5045.629
303.4485.484
313.3785.353
323.3335.222
333.2815.120
343.2125.021
353.1554.886
363.0974.780
373.0344.675
382.9954.579
392.9384.501
402.8934.399
412.8364.301
422.7894.230
432.7384.170
442.6914.088
452.6504.016
462.6013.935
472.5673.863
482.5333.769
492.4953.699
502.4623.624
512.4183.556
522.3813.489
532.3413.411
542.3023.338
552.2613.263
562.2173.174
572.1813.122
582.1513.070
592.1143.012
602.0762.938
612.0282.864
621.9942.811
631.9542.761
641.9242.701
651.8892.654
661.8562.607
671.8192.562
681.7852.505
691.7502.447
701.7142.405
711.6822.348
721.6492.302
731.6162.250
741.5902.202
751.5642.150
761.5372.104
771.5052.054
781.4562.008
791.4221.964
801.3871.906
811.3551.852
821.3101.801
831.2691.744
841.2271.695
851.1791.653
861.1351.597
871.0961.540
881.0401.493
891.0021.437
900.9571.375
910.9091.318
920.8471.249
930.7811.176
940.7131.087
950.6431.022
960.5830.947
970.4680.836
980.3570.738
990.1910.621


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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