Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd



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Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd ( May 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile5.2934.804
Median8.0597.988
Mean9.64910.740
75% Quartile12.10113.324
Interquartile Range6.8088.520

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
133.50750.825
228.41938.518
325.06834.542
422.99231.576
521.95229.540
620.70926.916
719.49225.203
818.85123.693
918.13422.267
1017.36621.246
1116.72120.428
1216.22719.556
1315.76818.914
1415.30618.288
1514.97517.617
1614.53517.098
1714.19716.507
1813.91015.919
1913.64615.414
2013.37615.025
2113.11414.654
2212.85614.250
2312.58313.971
2412.35713.571
2512.10513.325
2611.91113.114
2711.71812.798
2811.50312.551
2911.28912.267
3011.13611.959
3110.95911.681
3210.74911.403
3310.56911.186
3410.42210.974
3510.27510.688
3610.10510.461
379.92710.238
389.77010.033
399.5869.865
409.4579.647
419.3079.439
429.1249.286
438.9599.158
448.8488.984
458.7078.828
468.6048.656
478.4638.501
488.3228.300
498.1908.150
508.0597.988
517.9097.843
527.7667.699
537.6317.531
547.5167.372
557.4037.213
567.2847.021
577.1616.908
587.0436.795
596.9276.672
606.8216.511
616.6966.352
626.5976.236
636.5096.129
646.4065.999
656.3015.897
666.2075.794
676.1045.699
686.0215.575
695.9215.448
705.8145.357
715.7055.233
725.6135.135
735.5285.020
745.3984.917
755.2924.804
765.1884.704
775.0664.594
784.9694.494
794.8534.397
804.7394.272
814.5984.154
824.5054.043
834.3943.916
844.2783.811
854.1893.719
864.0553.596
873.9313.469
883.8313.367
893.6943.245
903.5513.108
913.3902.981
923.2192.830
933.0622.669
942.9232.471
952.6842.328
962.4652.161
972.2221.914
982.0011.696
991.6141.432


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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