Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd



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Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd ( Jan 2009 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.7811.549
Median1.1852.787
Mean1.3743.896
75% Quartile1.7654.892
Interquartile Range0.9843.343

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
14.27020.068
23.77215.063
33.40513.436
43.17412.239
52.98511.390
62.84010.345
72.7149.657
82.6109.043
92.5358.469
102.4578.059
112.3777.731
122.2907.384
132.2307.126
142.1816.872
152.1396.604
162.0956.398
172.0506.160
182.0115.923
191.9755.723
201.9285.569
211.8975.422
221.8695.256
231.8295.151
241.7984.990
251.7664.894
261.7384.811
271.7114.682
281.6844.582
291.6534.473
301.6184.350
311.5894.241
321.5654.128
331.5404.043
341.5173.963
351.4963.847
361.4743.760
371.4493.671
381.4253.591
391.4013.524
401.3823.438
411.3633.356
421.3413.296
431.3233.245
441.3043.177
451.2853.117
461.2653.048
471.2482.988
481.2232.910
491.2042.849
501.1852.787
511.1692.730
521.1472.674
531.1332.607
541.1142.547
551.0952.481
561.0832.409
571.0682.365
581.0492.320
591.0362.273
601.0172.208
611.0022.148
620.9862.104
630.9712.061
640.9542.012
650.9411.972
660.9291.933
670.9121.895
680.8951.847
690.8811.798
700.8631.763
710.8481.715
720.8311.677
730.8171.632
740.7981.593
750.7811.549
760.7621.510
770.7451.468
780.7261.429
790.7081.392
800.6901.344
810.6771.299
820.6591.256
830.6431.207
840.6251.167
850.6031.132
860.5831.085
870.5681.036
880.5470.997
890.5240.950
900.4980.898
910.4770.850
920.4530.792
930.4280.731
940.3930.656
950.3640.602
960.3230.539
970.2820.446
980.2300.364
990.1400.265


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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