Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd



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Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd ( Jan 2011 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile5.2091.549
Median7.2582.787
Mean8.0123.896
75% Quartile9.9864.892
Interquartile Range4.7773.343

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
121.10320.068
218.66715.063
317.32613.436
416.30712.239
515.42811.390
614.75510.345
714.1789.657
813.7309.043
913.2798.469
1012.9838.059
1112.6457.731
1212.4607.384
1312.2217.126
1411.9976.872
1511.7696.604
1611.5176.398
1711.2686.160
1811.1035.923
1910.9395.723
2010.7605.569
2110.5975.422
2210.4215.256
2310.2485.151
2410.1144.990
259.9864.894
269.8384.811
279.6794.682
289.5374.582
299.3994.473
309.2604.350
319.1344.241
329.0154.128
338.9154.043
348.7863.963
358.6483.847
368.5593.760
378.4653.671
388.3423.591
398.2143.524
408.1043.438
418.0213.356
427.9203.296
437.8323.245
447.7223.177
457.6363.117
467.5453.048
477.4702.988
487.4052.910
497.3282.849
507.2582.787
517.1812.730
527.1032.674
537.0092.607
546.9232.547
556.8452.481
566.7632.409
576.6612.365
586.5862.320
596.5152.273
606.4362.208
616.3642.148
626.2842.104
636.2022.061
646.1252.012
656.0321.972
665.9411.933
675.8731.895
685.7971.847
695.7201.798
705.6331.763
715.5621.715
725.4701.677
735.3731.632
745.2831.593
755.2081.549
765.1091.510
775.0231.468
784.9241.429
794.8451.392
804.7711.344
814.6901.299
824.6121.256
834.5141.207
844.4121.167
854.3251.132
864.2261.085
874.1301.036
884.0010.997
893.9020.950
903.8090.898
913.6610.850
923.5390.792
933.3940.731
943.2570.656
953.0680.602
962.8980.539
972.6840.446
982.4490.364
992.1460.265


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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