Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd



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Probability distribution for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd ( Jan 2012 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.1591.549
Median4.4542.787
Mean4.9743.896
75% Quartile6.1944.892
Interquartile Range3.0353.343

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
113.66820.068
211.98715.063
311.02713.436
410.35612.239
59.80111.390
69.33010.345
78.9679.657
88.7189.043
98.4618.469
108.2498.059
118.0047.731
127.7817.384
137.6257.126
147.5076.872
157.3876.604
167.2656.398
177.1266.160
186.9675.923
196.8395.723
206.7065.569
216.6085.422
226.4865.256
236.3925.151
246.3014.990
256.1964.894
266.1194.811
276.0334.682
285.9474.582
295.8424.473
305.7604.350
315.6754.241
325.5964.128
335.5094.043
345.4423.963
355.3593.847
365.2863.760
375.2093.671
385.1423.591
395.0783.524
405.0113.438
414.9523.356
424.8843.296
434.8143.245
444.7603.177
454.7183.117
464.6543.048
474.6082.988
484.5592.910
494.5042.849
504.4542.787
514.4042.730
524.3612.674
534.2922.607
544.2412.547
554.1962.481
564.1422.409
574.0892.365
584.0342.320
593.9782.273
603.9292.208
613.8822.148
623.8412.104
633.7902.061
643.7532.012
653.7011.972
663.6521.933
673.5911.895
683.5351.847
693.4881.798
703.4381.763
713.3891.715
723.3361.677
733.2731.632
743.2211.593
753.1591.549
763.1091.510
773.0401.468
782.9871.429
792.9381.392
802.8821.344
812.8331.299
822.7791.256
832.7351.207
842.6771.167
852.6011.132
862.5271.085
872.4741.036
882.4030.997
892.3410.950
902.2650.898
912.2010.850
922.1310.792
932.0430.731
941.9550.656
951.8260.602
961.7190.539
971.5800.446
981.4440.364
991.2200.265


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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