Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2008) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Apr1.6530.6830.2540.7062.004
Apr-May3.8211.7540.6181.6148.692
Apr-Jun7.5563.7321.0322.83563.770

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1010.37014.161
207.7989.904
306.3337.825
405.3176.269
504.4745.160
603.8084.178
703.2283.416
802.5532.704
901.8421.948

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
120.59134.843
216.85026.171
315.34923.387
414.07921.317
513.15719.900
612.34718.078
711.65016.892
811.16815.848
910.75514.865
1010.37014.161
1110.11013.599
129.75313.000
139.42312.560
149.08212.131
158.80511.672
168.56711.317
178.31610.913
188.13710.513
197.97410.169
207.7989.904
217.6429.652
227.4859.377
237.3549.188
247.2018.916
257.0508.749
266.8748.607
276.7398.393
286.6138.225
296.4698.033
306.3337.825
316.2257.638
326.0927.450
335.9747.304
345.8807.161
355.7786.968
365.6846.816
375.5776.666
385.4886.528
395.4026.415
405.3176.269
415.2256.129
425.1616.027
435.0815.941
445.0045.825
454.9005.721
464.8175.605
474.7435.502
484.6435.368
494.5725.267
504.4745.160
514.4155.063
524.3644.967
534.2884.855
544.2174.750
554.1384.643
564.0664.516
573.9984.441
583.9354.366
593.8644.284
603.8084.178
613.7424.072
623.6913.996
633.6333.925
643.5703.839
653.5123.772
663.4633.704
673.3963.641
683.3433.559
693.2893.476
703.2283.416
713.1423.335
723.0763.270
733.0133.194
742.9463.127
752.8793.053
762.8132.987
772.7502.915
782.6872.849
792.6222.786
802.5532.704
812.4702.627
822.4102.554
832.3502.472
842.2782.403
852.2102.344
862.1362.264
872.0502.181
881.9862.115
891.9192.036
901.8421.948
911.7781.865
921.6781.768
931.5871.664
941.4941.537
951.3641.445
961.2561.338
971.1431.181
980.9731.042
990.7410.875


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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