Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd( Oct 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Oct5.2821.8290.2972.78140.032
Oct-Nov8.1712.8320.5334.59946.603
Oct-Dec10.5673.4900.6386.31549.643

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
106.66122.919
205.31016.033
304.52912.451
403.9409.722
503.4687.778
603.0386.075
702.6694.778
802.2173.594
901.7492.379

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
111.16746.533
29.79838.327
38.82335.240
48.29132.772
57.88130.989
67.52028.578
77.25126.934
87.02325.438
96.86323.984
106.66122.919
116.48522.052
126.29621.113
136.18220.414
145.99219.724
155.87218.979
165.74018.397
175.63517.729
185.50217.060
195.41616.482
205.31016.033
215.21715.605
225.13315.135
235.06414.811
244.96614.345
254.88814.056
264.81713.810
274.73113.439
284.66213.148
294.59212.814
304.52912.451
314.46812.123
324.40411.795
334.35311.539
344.30411.289
354.23310.950
364.17010.683
374.11510.420
384.06310.177
394.0109.979
403.9409.722
413.8839.477
423.8319.297
433.7799.147
443.7348.942
453.6808.759
463.6458.557
473.6068.376
483.5618.141
493.5167.966
503.4687.778
513.4177.609
523.3687.441
533.3087.247
543.2677.064
553.2296.879
563.1836.658
573.1476.529
583.1076.399
593.0756.258
603.0386.075
612.9995.894
622.9635.763
632.9345.642
642.8995.495
652.8545.381
662.8135.265
672.7815.158
682.7465.020
692.7054.878
702.6694.778
712.6344.641
722.5924.532
732.5504.405
742.4894.293
752.4454.169
762.4064.060
772.3573.941
782.3173.832
792.2643.729
802.2173.594
812.1753.468
822.1263.350
832.0773.216
842.0333.104
851.9943.009
861.9522.880
871.9092.749
881.8562.643
891.8002.518
901.7492.379
911.6852.250
921.6202.099
931.5441.939
941.4841.744
951.4031.606
961.3111.446
971.2081.214
981.0661.013
990.9020.777


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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