Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Sep4.9843.3610.5013.7027.093
Sep-Oct10.2675.1910.7986.48347.125
Sep-Nov13.1566.1941.0348.30053.696

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1013.02627.061
2010.45219.765
308.85015.823
407.60212.713
506.65110.417
605.7548.337
704.9826.694
804.1405.138
903.1313.466

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
122.29951.278
218.90942.883
317.40039.730
416.39137.208
515.59335.383
614.92032.911
714.35131.220
813.79529.675
913.38228.169
1013.02627.061
1112.66326.156
1212.36825.173
1312.08724.438
1411.83823.710
1511.54722.921
1611.35522.303
1711.17021.589
1810.96120.873
1910.68220.250
2010.45219.765
2110.25519.301
2210.06818.790
239.92918.435
249.72117.924
259.56617.606
269.42317.335
279.27316.925
289.11216.602
298.99816.229
308.85015.823
318.73115.456
328.62115.086
338.48814.796
348.32814.512
358.19614.127
368.08813.821
377.95713.519
387.82113.239
397.69713.011
407.60212.713
417.49012.427
427.38912.217
437.30012.041
447.20911.801
457.09711.586
467.00411.347
476.91911.132
486.82210.852
496.74010.643
506.65110.417
516.56310.214
526.47610.012
536.4079.777
546.3229.554
556.2419.329
566.1469.058
576.0398.899
585.9468.739
595.8448.564
605.7548.337
615.6898.111
625.6137.947
635.5097.795
645.4487.609
655.3707.465
665.3107.318
675.2117.182
685.1277.004
695.0626.823
704.9826.694
714.9146.517
724.8166.376
734.7246.211
744.6406.064
754.5605.902
764.4805.758
774.4005.601
784.3155.457
794.2305.319
804.1405.138
814.0464.969
823.9484.809
833.8774.627
843.7864.476
853.6894.344
863.5844.167
873.4483.985
883.3493.838
893.2473.662
903.1313.466
913.0343.283
922.9363.066
932.8152.834
942.6892.550
952.4612.345
962.2662.106
972.0581.753
981.7771.441
991.3591.065


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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