Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1966) (GL)
Nov2.9353.9171.9310.2361.6833.247
Nov-Dec5.3767.2183.2510.3413.31425.907
Nov-Jan7.0249.0263.8590.4313.90426.916

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
106.80514.670
205.43010.737
304.5578.479
403.8726.655
503.3855.310
602.9244.112
702.4713.195
802.0252.365
901.5271.529

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
111.74525.895
210.05522.225
39.21020.800
48.71619.635
58.22118.778
67.83617.594
77.49616.767
87.20316.000
96.97915.239
106.80514.670
116.59814.201
126.40013.685
136.23013.295
146.09812.906
155.98812.480
165.85712.143
175.75711.752
185.66011.356
195.51311.009
205.43010.737
215.34710.475
225.25110.186
235.1579.984
245.0699.692
254.9759.510
264.8819.354
274.7969.117
284.7148.930
294.6368.715
304.5578.479
314.4908.264
324.4128.048
334.3537.879
344.2747.713
354.2097.486
364.1457.307
374.0767.129
384.0196.965
393.9366.831
403.8726.655
413.8146.487
423.7636.364
433.7186.260
443.6716.119
453.6205.993
463.5635.853
473.5255.727
483.4815.564
493.4365.441
503.3855.310
513.3335.192
523.2965.074
533.2584.938
543.2164.809
553.1584.679
563.1114.523
573.0614.432
583.0154.341
592.9654.241
602.9244.112
612.8763.984
622.8283.891
632.7813.806
642.7333.702
652.6943.621
662.6413.540
672.6043.464
682.5663.366
692.5173.266
702.4713.195
712.4383.099
722.3943.022
732.3452.933
742.3112.854
752.2482.767
762.2032.691
772.1582.607
782.1082.531
792.0732.459
802.0252.365
811.9852.278
821.9372.195
831.8932.103
841.8422.026
851.7851.960
861.7451.871
871.6921.781
881.6511.709
891.5791.624
901.5271.529
911.4761.442
921.3971.340
931.3261.233
941.2481.104
951.1701.013
961.0560.908
970.9480.758
980.8400.630
990.6340.481


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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