Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1966) (GL)
Dec2.4413.3001.3200.1051.63122.660
Dec-Jan4.0895.1081.9280.1942.22123.669
Dec-Feb5.1327.0782.4930.2683.05224.198

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
106.36110.703
205.1147.366
304.2905.715
403.6984.478
503.2253.599
602.8032.825
702.4432.229
802.0351.676
901.5691.097

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
111.58724.909
29.88219.424
39.07417.515
48.30516.048
57.89915.022
67.49913.678
77.13412.789
86.83411.998
96.54211.245
106.36110.703
116.22310.267
126.0539.801
135.9089.458
145.7439.122
155.6248.762
165.5068.482
175.3988.164
185.2977.848
195.1977.576
205.1147.366
215.0057.166
224.8856.948
234.8176.798
244.7316.582
254.6626.450
264.5716.336
274.5056.166
284.4406.033
294.3615.880
304.2905.715
314.2135.566
324.1535.417
334.1095.300
344.0415.187
353.9865.033
363.9154.912
373.8584.793
383.8064.683
393.7494.594
403.6984.478
413.6404.367
423.5884.286
433.5494.218
443.4934.125
453.4514.043
463.4083.951
473.3603.869
483.3163.763
493.2733.684
503.2253.599
513.1843.522
523.1463.446
533.1103.358
543.0663.275
553.0213.191
562.9793.091
572.9353.032
582.8922.973
592.8452.909
602.8032.825
612.7562.742
622.7212.682
632.6802.627
642.6402.559
652.6112.507
662.5752.454
672.5392.404
682.5092.340
692.4782.275
702.4432.229
712.4012.165
722.3572.115
732.3252.056
742.2852.004
752.2451.946
762.2121.895
772.1701.839
782.1221.788
792.0701.740
802.0351.676
811.9901.617
821.9591.561
831.9121.498
841.8641.445
851.8191.399
861.7781.338
871.7331.275
881.6731.224
891.6201.164
901.5691.097
911.5141.034
921.4590.960
931.4050.882
941.3210.786
951.2500.717
961.1430.637
971.0440.519
980.9160.417
990.7700.294


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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