Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Feb1.0621.9700.5660.0330.8313.277
Feb-Mar2.61917.3241.3600.0742.84314.976
Feb-Apr4.28819.5162.0430.3653.50828.873

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.0867.964
203.2785.443
302.8034.236
402.4193.346
502.1292.720
601.8512.172
701.6021.753
801.3071.367
900.9720.964

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
17.01620.762
25.92615.310
35.45613.583
45.07612.307
54.83311.439
64.64910.327
74.4719.608
84.3338.977
94.1908.386
104.0867.964
113.9747.628
123.8877.271
133.7837.009
143.7036.755
153.6266.483
163.5466.274
173.4626.036
183.4185.800
193.3355.599
203.2785.443
213.2315.296
223.1795.136
233.1255.026
243.0804.868
253.0354.771
262.9934.688
272.9454.564
282.9024.467
292.8554.356
302.8034.236
312.7574.128
322.7204.021
332.6833.937
342.6423.855
352.5993.744
362.5623.657
372.5193.572
382.4853.493
392.4473.429
402.4193.346
412.3853.267
422.3613.209
432.3253.160
442.2933.094
452.2663.035
462.2322.970
472.2032.912
482.1772.836
492.1552.780
502.1292.720
512.0992.665
522.0692.611
532.0412.549
542.0192.490
551.9862.431
561.9532.360
571.9312.318
581.9052.277
591.8772.231
601.8512.172
611.8302.114
621.8092.072
631.7832.033
641.7581.985
651.7341.948
661.7071.911
671.6851.877
681.6631.832
691.6341.786
701.6021.753
711.5791.709
721.5561.674
731.5181.632
741.4881.596
751.4621.556
761.4291.520
771.4011.481
781.3761.445
791.3401.411
801.3071.367
811.2821.326
821.2561.287
831.2231.243
841.1941.206
851.1581.174
861.1321.131
871.1041.088
881.0571.053
891.0121.011
900.9720.964
910.9280.921
920.8930.870
930.8460.815
940.7830.749
950.7130.701
960.6430.646
970.5730.566
980.4700.495
990.3510.411


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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