Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2008) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Apr1.6692.1920.6830.2540.6662.004
Apr-May3.8544.3971.7540.6181.5108.692
Apr-Jun7.6166.5543.7321.0322.61363.770

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1011.11314.161
208.3829.904
306.8117.825
405.7046.269
504.8325.160
604.0924.178
703.4823.416
802.7572.704
902.0061.948

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
122.04634.843
218.09126.171
316.47523.387
415.02221.317
514.05819.900
613.22118.078
712.48816.892
811.95315.848
911.53414.865
1011.11314.161
1110.78113.599
1210.43613.000
1310.08212.560
149.73312.131
159.43411.672
169.17711.317
178.91110.913
188.72110.513
198.55210.169
208.3829.904
218.2029.652
228.0229.377
237.8789.188
247.7208.916
257.5438.749
267.3698.607
277.2418.393
287.1098.225
296.9578.033
306.8117.825
316.6897.638
326.5507.450
336.4237.304
346.3097.161
356.2056.968
366.0956.816
375.9846.666
385.8876.528
395.8136.415
405.7046.269
415.6136.129
425.5396.027
435.4535.941
445.3545.825
455.2495.721
465.1845.605
475.1145.502
485.0035.368
494.9155.267
504.8325.160
514.7575.063
524.6834.967
534.6114.855
544.5374.750
554.4544.643
564.3774.516
574.3064.441
584.2334.366
594.1584.284
604.0924.178
614.0224.072
623.9703.996
633.9083.925
643.8483.839
653.7783.772
663.7283.704
673.6513.641
683.6003.559
693.5443.476
703.4823.416
713.3843.335
723.3183.270
733.2423.194
743.1753.127
753.1083.053
763.0362.987
772.9692.915
782.8992.849
792.8352.786
802.7572.704
812.6642.627
822.6062.554
832.5362.472
842.4632.403
852.3952.344
862.3202.264
872.2252.181
882.1462.115
892.0752.036
902.0061.948
911.9251.865
921.8181.768
931.7271.664
941.6211.537
951.4821.445
961.3651.338
971.2531.181
981.0691.042
990.8360.875


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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