Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Historical and exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Oct5.3372.0421.8290.2972.89340.032
Oct-Nov8.2563.9732.8320.5334.71946.603
Oct-Dec10.6795.2933.4900.6386.44549.643

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1011.92822.919
209.63816.033
308.31612.451
407.2619.722
506.4417.778
605.7026.075
705.0404.778
804.2283.594
903.3972.379

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
119.51846.533
216.63038.327
315.28435.240
414.56232.772
513.96130.989
613.42528.578
713.03726.934
812.53625.438
912.23523.984
1011.92822.919
1111.60222.052
1211.29721.113
1311.08420.414
1410.82219.724
1510.64518.979
1610.41418.397
1710.20217.729
189.99217.060
199.82516.482
209.63816.033
219.48715.605
229.33415.135
239.15714.811
249.03314.345
258.93914.056
268.81813.810
278.70013.439
288.57213.148
298.44212.814
308.31612.451
318.18212.123
328.05711.795
337.96111.539
347.85911.289
357.75910.950
367.67710.683
377.56810.420
387.47410.177
397.3759.979
407.2619.722
417.1729.477
427.0649.297
436.9799.147
446.9068.942
456.8338.759
466.7648.557
476.6788.376
486.6168.141
496.5297.966
506.4417.778
516.3527.609
526.2817.441
536.2137.247
546.1387.064
556.0596.879
565.9956.658
575.9156.529
585.8486.399
595.7916.258
605.7026.075
615.6295.894
625.5635.763
635.4925.642
645.4265.495
655.3665.381
665.2965.265
675.2345.158
685.1775.020
695.1064.878
705.0404.778
714.9544.641
724.8804.532
734.8034.405
744.7254.293
754.6374.169
764.5554.060
774.4853.941
784.3993.832
794.3183.729
804.2283.594
814.1613.468
824.0953.350
834.0123.216
843.9293.104
853.8583.009
863.7792.880
873.6802.749
883.5852.643
893.4992.518
903.3972.379
913.2662.250
923.1812.099
933.0651.939
942.9431.744
952.7941.606
962.6221.446
972.4431.214
982.1941.013
991.9720.777


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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