Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd


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Product list for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd



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Historical and exceedance probability for Adelong Creek at Batlow Rd ( Jun 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Jun3.7341.9793.8680.6241.22155.079
Jun-Jul8.7914.6718.1021.5093.54361.772
Jun-Aug14.3578.48610.0512.1546.73868.243

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1019.13728.309
2015.14620.435
3012.93516.448
4011.14813.391
509.64211.166
608.4309.160
707.2267.575
806.0306.066
904.5794.425

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
133.80962.035
229.39748.740
326.12244.220
424.19140.778
522.54638.380
621.61535.245
720.96433.174
820.27431.330
919.62329.575
1019.13728.309
1118.61727.290
1218.11226.198
1317.64525.391
1417.22424.600
1516.90523.751
1616.52623.091
1716.11222.337
1815.79221.585
1915.39220.937
2015.14620.435
2114.88819.958
2214.63119.434
2314.41619.074
2414.19718.555
2513.97418.234
2613.74817.960
2713.51417.548
2813.28517.224
2913.08116.852
3012.93516.448
3112.73916.083
3212.49615.717
3312.31615.431
3412.08515.152
3511.95214.773
3611.75414.473
3711.63514.177
3811.45413.904
3911.27213.681
4011.14813.391
4110.98213.113
4210.82912.909
4310.66112.737
4410.53712.504
4510.38312.296
4610.24012.065
4710.06011.856
489.91211.586
499.76811.384
509.64211.166
519.50110.970
529.38010.775
539.26410.548
549.14410.333
559.04510.116
568.9159.855
578.8159.702
588.6739.548
598.5729.379
608.4309.160
618.3128.942
628.1808.784
638.0678.638
647.9278.458
657.7968.319
667.6858.178
677.5958.046
687.4747.875
697.3457.700
707.2267.575
717.1317.404
726.9957.267
736.8607.108
746.7436.966
756.6156.808
766.4976.668
776.3696.516
786.2516.376
796.1336.242
806.0306.066
815.8865.901
825.7485.745
835.6245.567
845.5005.419
855.3525.290
865.1945.116
875.0814.937
884.9144.792
894.7674.618
904.5794.425
914.3984.243
924.2004.028
934.0123.796
943.8113.512
953.5103.305
963.2513.064
972.9492.704
982.6222.385
992.0871.996


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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