Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


Return to catchment list
Product list for Cotter River at Gingera


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1029.10333.034
2024.47125.781
3021.33221.749
4018.81418.416
5016.77315.816
6014.87713.305
7013.10811.175
8010.8718.990
908.4386.372

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
142.94259.388
239.03949.509
336.07646.046
434.29143.355
533.01141.447
632.16538.905
731.26037.191
830.52035.639
929.67534.136
1029.10333.034
1128.59732.137
1227.89231.163
1327.29430.434
1426.86029.714
1526.47028.931
1625.98828.317
1725.64627.607
1825.23826.892
1924.88826.268
2024.47125.781
2124.19125.314
2223.87924.797
2323.54124.437
2423.22023.917
2522.89923.592
2622.53723.314
2722.20622.892
2821.93622.558
2921.66722.172
3021.33221.749
3121.11221.363
3220.87020.974
3320.55520.667
3420.31920.365
3520.04819.953
3619.84719.624
3719.61719.297
3819.37718.993
3919.07618.744
4018.81418.416
4118.64118.101
4218.41917.867
4318.25917.670
4417.98317.401
4517.75317.158
4617.53916.887
4717.32516.641
4817.13616.321
4916.95216.078
5016.77315.816
5116.53515.578
5216.38915.340
5316.20215.062
5416.03914.795
5515.82314.524
5615.58914.196
5715.43414.001
5815.29213.805
5915.08113.589
6014.87713.305
6114.72113.021
6214.54612.814
6314.35712.619
6414.18312.380
6514.02912.194
6613.83912.003
6713.64211.824
6813.43211.590
6913.26411.349
7013.10811.175
7112.90010.936
7212.67410.744
7312.47910.517
7412.28710.314
7512.05210.087
7611.8369.884
7711.5759.661
7811.3699.454
7911.0989.254
8010.8718.990
8110.6268.740
8210.3968.500
8310.1888.225
849.9297.993
859.7227.789
869.5027.512
879.2737.222
888.9996.986
898.7106.698
908.4386.372
918.1206.063
927.8345.689
937.5685.280
947.1344.764
956.6864.380
966.1833.921
975.5893.212
984.9212.553
993.9631.709


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence