Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera


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Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1017.75726.011
2014.70121.251
3012.58818.146
4010.76015.274
509.24612.827
607.94410.315
706.6438.130
805.3855.954
903.9013.660

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
127.47738.060
224.18634.226
322.62832.720
421.29031.480
520.48430.559
619.82729.274
719.21928.367
818.75127.514
918.22226.658
1017.75726.011
1117.42225.470
1217.05224.869
1316.69624.410
1416.39923.947
1516.04123.433
1615.74623.023
1715.46822.539
1815.24122.043
1914.98621.601
2014.70121.251
2114.43420.910
2214.16420.527
2313.94420.258
2413.74219.862
2513.56019.612
2613.39219.396
2713.15719.065
2812.98718.800
2912.80918.490
3012.58818.146
3112.35417.829
3212.17317.504
3311.98817.246
3411.83316.989
3511.58816.635
3611.42316.349
3711.24516.062
3811.09315.792
3910.93415.569
4010.76015.274
4110.60314.986
4210.44314.772
4310.23614.590
4410.10114.339
459.97614.112
469.84213.856
479.67113.622
489.53513.315
499.38913.081
509.24612.827
519.10312.594
528.95912.360
538.82712.085
548.71511.820
558.60111.549
568.46211.219
578.34511.023
588.20710.824
598.07010.604
607.94410.315
617.82610.024
627.6869.812
637.5549.612
647.4109.367
657.3019.175
667.1678.979
677.0658.795
686.9288.555
696.7858.308
706.6438.130
716.5467.886
726.4147.691
736.2807.461
746.1677.256
756.0547.029
765.9186.827
775.8016.606
785.6376.403
795.5086.208
805.3855.954
815.2625.717
825.1355.492
834.9575.238
844.7625.026
854.5974.844
864.4414.601
874.3134.352
884.2084.154
894.0703.919
903.9013.660
913.7253.423
923.5403.148
933.3692.861
943.1522.521
952.8672.284
962.5982.019
972.3211.648
982.0191.344
991.5141.011


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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