Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera


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Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1025.03031.271
2021.21625.705
3018.71722.097
4016.60318.784
5014.71115.983
6013.10713.127
7011.47510.644
809.6828.141
907.6075.393

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
135.36845.433
232.75240.922
330.93939.151
429.60537.692
528.48736.610
627.51535.101
726.73334.035
826.08633.034
925.58432.030
1025.03031.271
1124.55630.638
1224.11629.934
1323.73129.396
1423.29828.854
1522.91828.254
1622.62127.774
1722.27927.209
1821.86926.629
1921.42926.114
2021.21625.705
2120.92325.308
2220.63524.862
2320.40224.549
2420.10824.089
2519.86323.798
2619.65023.547
2719.37823.163
2819.15822.855
2918.93622.496
3018.71722.097
3118.51421.730
3218.34421.354
3318.05521.056
3417.87520.760
3517.66220.351
3617.46120.021
3717.20019.690
3816.98819.380
3916.76819.123
4016.60318.784
4116.38118.454
4216.18818.207
4315.99917.999
4415.83817.711
4515.61917.451
4615.41417.159
4715.18416.892
4815.00016.541
4914.83216.274
5014.71115.983
5114.52515.718
5214.36715.452
5314.21515.138
5414.04714.836
5513.90614.529
5613.70214.153
5713.56113.930
5813.43013.704
5913.26513.455
6013.10713.127
6112.93612.797
6212.77612.556
6312.61712.329
6412.45512.051
6512.29611.833
6612.17711.610
6711.98911.401
6811.83511.128
6911.68310.847
7011.47510.644
7111.29210.366
7211.11310.143
7310.9209.880
7410.7609.645
7510.6059.385
7610.4079.151
7710.2718.897
7810.1018.662
799.9118.436
809.6828.141
819.4447.863
829.2617.599
839.0457.300
848.8697.049
858.6546.832
868.4516.541
878.2616.241
888.0126.000
897.8055.712
907.6075.393
917.3375.097
927.0814.749
936.7324.382
946.3523.939
956.0153.625
965.4933.266
975.0272.752
984.4152.317
993.5131.820


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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