Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera


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Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1016.31920.208
2013.07415.315
3011.04312.473
409.24910.113
507.7808.301
606.4766.605
705.3465.231
804.1043.903
902.7132.447

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
125.34434.459
222.84729.738
321.30027.920
420.25126.441
519.27425.357
618.62223.865
717.81222.828
817.23721.867
916.75220.917
1016.31920.208
1115.91819.624
1215.55318.982
1315.16218.498
1414.77918.014
1514.51917.485
1614.13117.067
1713.81716.580
1813.55416.087
1913.32715.655
2013.07415.315
2112.84514.989
2212.54614.627
2312.36914.374
2412.14714.007
2511.92413.778
2611.73313.582
2711.56513.283
2811.35213.047
2911.19612.773
3011.04312.473
3110.81212.200
3210.59311.923
3310.43711.705
3410.25411.491
3510.02111.199
369.82610.966
379.70010.735
389.55510.520
399.41310.344
409.24910.113
419.1229.891
428.9389.727
438.7589.589
448.5939.400
458.4539.231
468.3259.042
478.1858.871
488.0598.649
497.9178.481
507.7808.301
517.6558.137
527.5027.974
537.3887.784
547.2407.603
557.1137.420
566.9637.198
576.8417.068
586.7036.937
596.5806.793
606.4766.605
616.3636.418
626.2546.282
636.1676.155
646.0316.000
655.8875.879
665.7675.757
675.6775.642
685.5665.493
695.4445.340
705.3465.231
715.2145.081
725.0984.962
734.9864.822
744.8654.697
754.7594.558
764.6214.435
774.4844.301
784.3594.177
794.2484.058
804.1043.903
814.0143.757
823.8773.619
833.7453.461
843.6203.329
853.4923.215
863.3433.061
873.2172.902
883.0022.774
892.8592.619
902.7132.447
912.5872.286
922.4242.095
932.2241.890
942.0341.638
951.8691.456
961.6101.243
971.4060.927
981.0770.647
990.7540.308


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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