Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera


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Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1011.41415.547
208.78110.835
307.1778.449
405.9116.635
504.9435.331
604.1474.172
703.3793.270
802.5782.428
901.7261.533

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
121.43934.227
218.44627.241
317.16624.749
415.58822.811
514.39621.442
613.53619.631
712.85718.421
812.26817.337
911.84716.299
1011.41415.547
1111.14314.941
1210.77414.289
1310.46313.806
1410.17313.333
159.87312.824
169.63812.429
179.40011.976
189.18611.525
198.99311.136
208.78110.835
218.65210.549
228.43110.235
238.28010.019
248.0989.708
257.9469.516
267.8089.352
277.6219.106
287.4508.912
297.2808.690
307.1778.449
317.0378.232
326.8908.014
336.7697.844
346.6437.678
356.5187.453
366.4027.275
376.2657.100
386.1536.938
396.0346.807
405.9116.635
415.7776.471
425.6646.351
435.5746.251
445.4836.114
455.3835.991
465.2775.856
475.1885.734
485.1175.576
495.0315.458
504.9435.331
514.8605.217
524.7665.103
534.6874.972
544.6084.847
554.5214.722
564.4484.571
574.3834.483
584.2964.394
594.2214.298
604.1474.172
614.0744.047
623.9903.957
633.9283.873
643.8473.771
653.7723.692
663.7023.611
673.6183.537
683.5383.440
693.4673.341
703.3793.270
713.3033.174
723.2123.097
733.1353.008
743.0672.928
753.0002.840
762.9152.762
772.8342.677
782.7692.599
792.6922.525
802.5782.428
812.4932.337
822.4242.251
832.3352.153
842.2572.072
852.1782.001
862.1021.907
872.0251.809
881.9341.731
891.8241.637
901.7261.533
911.6481.436
921.5441.321
931.4411.198
941.3211.048
951.1980.940
961.0370.815
970.8890.630
980.6830.467
990.4560.272


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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