Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera


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Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.82510.589
205.8897.293
304.8335.670
404.0194.460
503.3363.605
602.8192.858
702.3242.287
801.8191.762
901.2211.216

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
115.17024.412
212.41919.141
311.24217.284
410.42115.851
59.78514.846
69.22513.524
78.71012.648
88.33811.868
98.06511.124
107.82510.589
117.50110.159
127.3029.698
137.1009.358
146.8589.026
156.6748.671
166.4558.395
176.3048.081
186.1527.768
196.0347.500
205.8897.293
215.7817.096
225.6686.882
235.5456.734
245.4166.522
255.3086.391
265.1896.280
275.1046.113
285.0045.982
294.9215.832
304.8335.670
314.7455.523
324.6585.377
334.5755.263
344.4935.152
354.4115.002
364.3274.884
374.2534.767
384.1694.660
394.0854.573
404.0194.460
413.9534.352
423.8884.273
433.8174.206
443.7454.116
453.6904.036
463.6143.947
473.5573.868
483.4853.765
493.3973.688
503.3363.605
513.2823.531
523.2293.458
533.1733.373
543.1283.292
553.0763.211
563.0213.114
572.9703.058
582.9123.001
592.8532.939
602.8192.858
612.7782.779
622.7272.721
632.6722.668
642.6242.603
652.5652.553
662.5172.502
672.4722.455
682.4222.394
692.3672.331
702.3242.287
712.2802.226
722.2402.178
732.1792.122
742.1282.072
752.0792.018
762.0231.969
771.9711.916
781.9281.868
791.8761.822
801.8191.762
811.7701.706
821.7091.653
831.6351.593
841.5681.543
851.5091.500
861.4511.442
871.4041.383
881.3521.336
891.2961.279
901.2211.216
911.1601.158
921.0911.089
931.0291.016
940.9510.927
950.8620.863
960.7720.789
970.6110.681
980.4990.587
990.3400.476


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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