Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera


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Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
109.80611.445
207.0647.647
305.5215.843
404.4264.530
503.6363.620
602.9282.838
702.3642.250
801.7731.717
901.1701.175

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
119.34529.279
216.21922.131
314.59119.710
413.35117.880
512.59616.615
611.64014.978
711.09513.909
810.53212.967
910.13312.079
109.80611.445
119.40310.939
129.10110.400
138.77210.006
148.4179.622
158.1289.212
167.8558.897
177.6268.538
187.4728.183
197.2297.880
207.0647.647
216.9007.426
226.6737.185
236.4967.020
246.3336.784
256.2306.639
266.0596.516
275.9276.331
285.7876.187
295.6386.022
305.5215.843
315.3955.683
325.2715.523
335.1625.399
345.0635.279
354.9635.116
364.8494.988
374.7344.862
384.6214.746
394.5134.652
404.4264.530
414.3204.415
424.2054.330
434.1414.259
444.0584.163
453.9864.077
463.9053.983
473.8433.898
483.7683.789
493.6943.708
503.6363.620
513.5593.542
523.4563.465
533.3773.375
543.2983.291
553.2213.206
563.1583.105
573.1013.046
583.0462.986
592.9922.922
602.9282.838
612.8782.756
622.8242.696
632.7552.641
642.7022.574
652.6532.523
662.6022.470
672.5432.422
682.4712.359
692.4152.295
702.3642.250
712.2992.188
722.2442.139
732.1852.082
742.1262.031
752.0521.976
761.9991.926
771.9361.873
781.8771.824
791.8261.778
801.7731.717
811.7021.661
821.6311.608
831.5771.548
841.5291.499
851.4601.456
861.3941.399
871.3501.340
881.2931.293
891.2401.237
901.1701.175
911.0951.118
921.0041.051
930.9330.980
940.8620.894
950.7750.832
960.7010.762
970.5850.659
980.4440.570
990.2310.466


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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