Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera


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Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1011.33216.565
209.01211.942
307.4469.546
406.3747.706
505.4866.370
604.6745.171
703.9574.242
803.1503.364
902.2532.426

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
120.01333.674
217.36227.492
315.76825.215
414.65423.443
513.80222.134
613.31320.463
712.75819.325
812.19118.285
911.80617.290
1011.33216.565
1111.05315.979
1210.80415.350
1310.56114.878
1410.32414.410
1510.04813.910
169.84013.524
179.59913.073
189.38612.623
199.18412.239
209.01211.942
218.81411.658
228.59811.334
238.47811.129
248.33810.814
258.16610.625
268.04110.461
277.89310.207
287.74710.009
297.5879.792
307.4469.546
317.3449.329
327.2209.102
337.1368.930
347.0198.769
356.8998.536
366.8138.359
376.7198.179
386.5888.017
396.4447.881
406.3747.706
416.2477.538
426.1407.417
436.0657.312
445.9627.173
455.8727.048
465.7906.907
475.7246.785
485.6256.623
495.5566.499
505.4866.370
515.3946.252
525.2946.138
535.2225.998
545.1585.874
555.0765.738
564.9755.588
574.9035.497
584.8275.404
594.7435.305
604.6745.171
614.5805.045
624.5204.953
634.4584.865
644.3974.762
654.3254.680
664.2604.596
674.1764.519
684.0924.418
694.0244.315
703.9574.242
713.8664.142
723.8044.062
733.7283.969
743.6413.886
753.5773.794
763.5193.713
773.4343.624
783.3393.543
793.2433.465
803.1503.364
813.0623.269
822.9793.178
832.8793.076
842.7982.991
852.7302.917
862.6462.818
872.5592.716
882.4732.634
892.3632.536
902.2532.426
912.1712.324
922.0702.203
931.9292.074
941.8031.915
951.6651.801
961.4991.669
971.3301.472
981.1131.300
990.8291.092


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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