Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera


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Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1014.81723.085
2012.05817.402
3010.01714.192
408.61011.591
507.4059.639
606.4197.851
705.3876.432
804.3425.087
903.1303.646

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
125.08140.225
221.66234.494
320.03532.296
418.75430.514
517.81829.211
617.13527.425
716.43726.188
815.74725.046
915.29623.921
1014.81723.085
1114.41722.398
1214.09121.645
1313.81421.079
1413.56620.516
1513.26819.901
1613.02219.416
1712.75618.854
1812.50118.286
1912.29417.790
2012.05817.402
2111.84617.029
2211.61616.617
2311.39616.331
2411.19115.915
2511.03515.657
2610.82515.435
2710.62615.099
2810.40814.834
2910.19314.527
3010.01714.192
319.86213.887
329.71013.580
339.56013.339
349.40713.103
359.28512.780
369.13812.524
379.00012.270
388.87212.035
398.73611.843
408.61011.591
418.45711.350
428.34211.172
438.22911.022
448.11310.818
457.98010.635
467.87710.432
477.78010.249
487.67610.011
497.5439.831
507.4059.639
517.3149.465
527.2139.291
537.0949.090
546.9858.898
556.8888.705
566.7888.472
576.6798.335
586.6028.198
596.5188.047
606.4197.851
616.3057.656
626.2137.515
636.1127.383
645.9957.223
655.8927.098
665.7706.971
675.6966.854
685.6016.700
695.4806.544
705.3876.432
715.2846.279
725.1856.157
735.1016.014
744.9775.887
754.8635.747
764.7515.622
774.6385.487
784.5165.362
794.4225.243
804.3425.087
814.2504.941
824.1534.803
834.0214.646
843.9024.515
853.7674.402
863.6374.249
873.5164.092
883.3913.966
893.2683.815
903.1303.646
912.9983.489
922.8533.304
932.6833.105
942.5442.863
952.3832.688
962.1792.485
971.9752.185
981.6551.922
991.1881.607


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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