Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera


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Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1025.62833.034
2021.63725.781
3018.67521.749
4016.48018.416
5014.53815.816
6012.77813.305
7011.16911.175
809.2328.990
907.0386.372

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
138.81059.388
234.63849.509
332.24446.046
430.68843.355
529.59641.447
628.64638.905
727.93137.191
827.11035.639
926.28234.136
1025.62833.034
1125.03732.137
1224.58831.163
1324.15030.434
1423.72129.714
1523.25928.931
1622.84628.317
1722.53027.607
1822.25426.892
1921.99626.268
2021.63725.781
2121.34225.314
2221.03324.797
2320.68824.437
2420.36423.917
2519.98723.592
2619.72923.314
2719.43922.892
2819.16722.558
2918.92522.172
3018.67521.749
3118.46621.363
3218.16820.974
3317.90620.667
3417.69920.365
3517.50919.953
3617.29919.624
3717.14419.297
3816.89318.993
3916.66018.744
4016.48018.416
4116.24418.101
4216.00817.867
4315.83217.670
4415.64417.401
4515.41417.158
4615.20116.887
4715.01216.641
4814.86116.321
4914.67416.078
5014.53815.816
5114.39415.578
5214.19415.340
5314.03415.062
5413.88414.795
5513.67914.524
5613.47714.196
5713.30714.001
5813.12413.805
5912.94213.589
6012.77813.305
6112.62013.021
6212.46212.814
6312.28212.619
6412.11012.380
6511.97012.194
6611.79912.003
6711.65311.824
6811.48011.590
6911.34511.349
7011.16911.175
7110.99010.936
7210.84010.744
7310.62010.517
7410.48010.314
7510.23310.087
7610.0519.884
779.8369.661
789.6069.454
799.4249.254
809.2328.990
819.0048.740
828.8308.500
838.5768.225
848.4087.993
858.2047.789
867.9737.512
877.7707.222
887.5126.986
897.2426.698
907.0386.372
916.7776.063
926.5535.689
936.2115.280
945.8654.764
955.5784.380
965.0163.921
974.4793.212
983.9852.553
993.1671.709


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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