Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera


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Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1024.87226.011
2021.35021.251
3018.78618.146
4016.63515.274
5014.77812.827
6012.87210.315
7011.2258.130
809.2725.954
907.0183.660

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
135.37438.060
231.98634.226
329.98632.720
428.83531.480
527.86230.559
627.13329.274
726.32528.367
825.71627.514
925.32726.658
1024.87226.011
1124.48225.470
1224.13824.869
1323.70524.410
1423.27723.947
1522.98923.433
1622.60823.023
1722.23822.539
1821.97922.043
1921.67221.601
2021.35021.251
2121.06420.910
2220.77420.527
2320.54420.258
2420.23619.862
2520.03919.612
2619.80419.396
2719.53519.065
2819.22618.800
2919.04218.490
3018.78618.146
3118.55117.829
3218.35017.504
3318.15017.246
3417.95616.989
3517.73216.635
3617.50516.349
3717.31116.062
3817.11415.792
3916.89015.569
4016.63515.274
4116.38614.986
4216.12414.772
4315.95914.590
4415.79014.339
4515.59114.112
4615.45513.856
4715.26713.622
4815.07513.315
4914.94613.081
5014.77812.827
5114.59712.594
5214.35112.360
5314.18612.085
5414.02011.820
5513.84511.549
5613.64011.219
5713.46511.023
5813.29610.824
5913.06310.604
6012.87210.315
6112.70210.024
6212.5129.812
6312.3739.612
6412.2179.367
6512.0479.175
6611.8858.979
6711.7378.795
6811.5688.555
6911.4168.308
7011.2258.130
7110.9817.886
7210.7957.691
7310.6297.461
7410.4437.256
7510.2527.029
7610.0466.827
779.8996.606
789.6816.403
799.4436.208
809.2725.954
819.1225.717
828.9215.492
838.6885.238
848.4815.026
858.2254.844
867.9734.601
877.7714.352
887.5444.154
897.2973.919
907.0183.660
916.7783.423
926.5423.148
936.1732.861
945.8812.521
955.4992.284
964.9932.019
974.5581.648
983.9971.344
993.1511.011


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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