Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera



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Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera ( Apr 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1010.63213.060
207.8808.969
306.4066.998
405.2875.544
504.4604.516
603.7373.614
703.1082.928
802.4272.290
901.7271.621

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
122.26933.521
218.05824.887
316.14522.108
414.85820.074
513.85018.637
612.79516.877
712.15615.722
811.59514.698
911.13613.741
1010.63213.060
1110.23812.517
129.84911.943
139.57211.518
149.36811.100
158.99710.659
168.69910.322
178.4809.931
188.2539.546
198.0399.219
207.8808.969
217.6708.730
227.5088.460
237.3438.290
247.2238.030
257.0737.874
266.9597.740
276.8277.533
286.6737.372
296.5407.196
306.4066.998
316.2746.824
326.1656.643
336.0476.506
345.9486.378
355.8216.193
365.7136.054
375.5905.913
385.4845.786
395.3845.680
405.2875.544
415.1925.413
425.1175.319
435.0305.238
444.9355.131
454.8735.035
464.7624.926
474.6804.833
484.5924.709
494.5144.615
504.4604.516
514.3664.427
524.2804.340
534.1974.235
544.1324.141
554.0484.038
563.9843.926
573.9313.857
583.8693.788
593.8033.714
603.7373.614
613.6753.521
623.6033.452
633.5413.387
643.4743.310
653.4103.250
663.3603.188
673.2963.131
683.2363.057
693.1772.982
703.1082.928
713.0512.855
722.9762.796
732.9142.728
742.8442.668
752.7872.601
762.7002.542
772.6262.478
782.5582.419
792.4842.363
802.4272.290
812.3672.221
822.2972.157
832.2432.084
842.1652.023
852.0961.970
862.0201.899
871.9531.827
881.8811.768
891.8091.699
901.7271.621
911.6431.549
921.5571.464
931.4811.374
941.3841.264
951.3091.184
961.2091.093
971.0820.958
980.8830.840
990.6710.699


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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