Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera



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Exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1018.16023.085
2015.01917.402
3012.66114.192
4010.99711.591
509.5389.639
608.2917.851
707.0636.432
805.7615.087
904.2253.646

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
129.07240.225
225.67134.494
323.62532.296
422.59430.514
521.48129.211
620.69427.425
719.84126.188
819.11925.046
918.64423.921
1018.16023.085
1117.68122.398
1217.30721.645
1316.94021.079
1416.69720.516
1516.32019.901
1616.06319.416
1715.78118.854
1815.48918.286
1915.25517.790
2015.01917.402
2114.76017.029
2214.50216.617
2314.20716.331
2413.98715.915
2513.75715.657
2613.59215.435
2713.36315.099
2813.15214.834
2912.85114.527
3012.66114.192
3112.42713.887
3212.29613.580
3312.11913.339
3411.93713.103
3511.76112.780
3611.61012.524
3711.45512.270
3811.27412.035
3911.14811.843
4010.99711.591
4110.86411.350
4210.66811.172
4310.49911.022
4410.35210.818
4510.21110.635
4610.11410.432
479.93810.249
489.81310.011
499.6819.831
509.5389.639
519.4169.465
529.2839.291
539.1459.090
549.0408.898
558.9348.705
568.8198.472
578.6498.335
588.5258.198
598.4248.047
608.2917.851
618.1647.656
628.0387.515
637.9107.383
647.7887.223
657.6667.098
667.5356.971
677.4376.854
687.2866.700
697.1756.544
707.0636.432
716.9266.279
726.8056.157
736.6776.014
746.5655.887
756.4105.747
766.2725.622
776.1005.487
785.9865.362
795.8855.243
805.7615.087
815.6454.941
825.4964.803
835.3474.646
845.1984.515
854.9954.402
864.8424.249
874.7114.092
884.5733.966
894.3823.815
904.2253.646
914.0483.489
923.8633.304
933.6653.105
943.4632.863
953.2552.688
962.9732.485
972.7632.185
982.3481.922
991.7661.607


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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