Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera


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Probability distribution for Cotter River at Gingera(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.0801.683
Median2.0593.359
Mean2.8205.060
75% Quartile3.7336.584
Interquartile Range2.6534.901

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
112.77825.026
210.61620.340
39.41318.570
48.44817.151
57.98716.126
67.41714.741
76.99713.797
86.61112.940
96.37812.110
106.10011.504
115.83611.012
125.59510.481
135.34810.087
145.1479.699
154.9789.283
164.8108.958
174.6438.587
184.5238.218
194.3897.900
204.2417.654
214.1287.421
224.0237.166
233.9186.990
243.8206.739
253.7336.584
263.6386.452
273.5406.254
283.4586.099
293.3785.922
303.2865.731
313.2075.559
323.1285.388
333.0645.254
342.9945.125
352.9184.950
362.8344.813
372.7654.678
382.7094.554
392.6574.453
402.5974.324
412.5414.200
422.4774.110
432.4124.034
442.3593.932
452.3013.841
462.2543.741
472.1983.652
482.1513.537
492.1063.451
502.0593.359
512.0063.277
521.9523.196
531.9013.103
541.8613.015
551.8162.927
561.7722.822
571.7402.760
581.7012.699
591.6622.633
601.6252.547
611.5762.463
621.5382.402
631.4892.347
641.4472.279
651.4162.226
661.3822.174
671.3462.125
681.3102.062
691.2831.998
701.2481.953
711.2141.892
721.1761.843
731.1431.787
741.1161.737
751.0801.683
761.0371.635
770.9941.583
780.9511.536
790.9151.491
800.8761.433
810.8441.379
820.8111.329
830.7761.272
840.7401.225
850.6991.185
860.6691.132
870.6321.077
880.5961.034
890.5560.983
900.5120.927
910.4680.875
920.4180.815
930.3700.751
940.3180.676
950.2720.623
960.2200.562
970.1530.476
980.0400.403
990.0000.320


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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