Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera



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Probability distribution for Cotter River at Gingera ( Jan  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.2252.018
Median3.5633.605
Mean4.3595.048
75% Quartile5.6226.391
Interquartile Range3.3964.373

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
115.86124.412
212.99819.141
311.75617.284
410.93415.851
510.29214.846
69.66413.524
79.16212.648
88.80311.868
98.52911.124
108.25310.589
117.94510.159
127.7219.698
137.5139.358
147.2689.026
157.0388.671
166.8348.395
176.6828.081
186.5357.768
196.3937.500
206.2367.293
216.1257.096
226.0136.882
235.8706.734
245.7586.522
255.6246.391
265.5236.280
275.4196.113
285.3175.982
295.2285.832
305.1325.670
315.0495.523
324.9565.377
334.8765.263
344.7815.152
354.6845.002
364.6034.884
374.5284.767
384.4304.660
394.3604.573
404.2804.460
414.2024.352
424.1324.273
434.0504.206
443.9904.116
453.9184.036
463.8483.947
473.7873.868
483.7083.765
493.6383.688
503.5633.605
513.4973.531
523.4403.458
533.3893.373
543.3353.292
553.2783.211
563.2293.114
573.1753.058
583.1153.001
593.0532.939
603.0072.858
612.9682.779
622.9132.721
632.8512.668
642.8022.603
652.7432.553
662.6912.502
672.6412.455
682.5942.394
692.5372.331
702.4912.287
712.4432.226
722.3932.178
732.3382.122
742.2792.072
752.2252.018
762.1721.969
772.1171.916
782.0641.868
792.0121.822
801.9521.762
811.9031.706
821.8471.653
831.7521.593
841.6871.543
851.6171.500
861.5651.442
871.5151.383
881.4571.336
891.3971.279
901.3261.216
911.2561.158
921.1841.089
931.1201.016
941.0340.927
950.9380.863
960.8480.789
970.6880.681
980.5660.587
990.3890.476


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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