Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera



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Probability distribution for Cotter River at Gingera ( Jan 2012 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile4.4162.018
Median6.7703.605
Mean7.9045.048
75% Quartile10.2146.391
Interquartile Range5.7994.373

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
124.32224.412
221.21119.141
319.75117.284
418.29815.851
517.07114.846
616.28813.524
715.66712.648
815.12311.868
914.60911.124
1014.19110.589
1113.77510.159
1213.4259.698
1313.0919.358
1412.7629.026
1512.5078.671
1612.1868.395
1711.9238.081
1811.6877.768
1911.4537.500
2011.2207.293
2111.0127.096
2210.7456.882
2310.5746.734
2410.3776.522
2510.2156.391
2610.0856.280
279.9086.113
289.7145.982
299.5655.832
309.4165.670
319.2645.523
329.1605.377
339.0195.263
348.8545.152
358.7285.002
368.5934.884
378.4504.767
388.2844.660
398.1364.573
407.9914.460
417.8444.352
427.7024.273
437.6034.206
447.4784.116
457.3644.036
467.2703.947
477.1283.868
487.0113.765
496.8993.688
506.7703.605
516.6783.531
526.5813.458
536.4923.373
546.3863.292
556.2603.211
566.1713.114
576.0693.058
586.0013.001
595.9032.939
605.8232.858
615.7172.779
625.5982.721
635.5212.668
645.4212.603
655.3112.553
665.2262.502
675.1392.455
685.0452.394
694.9582.331
704.8582.287
714.7702.226
724.6732.178
734.5992.122
744.5212.072
754.4162.018
764.3131.969
774.2041.916
784.0991.868
793.9831.822
803.8811.762
813.7831.706
823.6791.653
833.5561.593
843.4141.543
853.2971.500
863.2151.442
873.0991.383
882.9771.336
892.8811.279
902.7821.216
912.6661.158
922.5471.089
932.4041.016
942.2330.927
952.0790.863
961.8650.789
971.6990.681
981.4330.587
991.1140.476


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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