Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera


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Historical and exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera( Jul 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1964+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jul4.0042.2540.5192.66311.094
Jul-Aug9.3766.4301.0866.15333.677
Jul-Sep16.15314.5131.98411.10352.551

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1026.96330.448
2022.58423.332
3019.55619.303
4017.21716.009
5015.15813.502
6013.43611.166
7011.6609.274
809.7587.439
907.3405.408

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
143.40152.329
238.06644.929
335.27342.113
433.32539.839
531.88138.182
630.56735.917
729.44234.354
828.53232.914
927.61531.498
1026.96330.448
1126.25529.586
1225.66528.643
1325.11727.933
1424.70627.228
1524.33626.458
1623.98125.852
1723.70025.149
1823.26324.438
1922.94523.817
2022.58423.332
2122.23322.865
2221.93122.349
2321.60621.989
2421.30421.469
2521.07521.144
2620.73420.866
2720.32520.444
2820.06320.111
2919.81619.725
3019.55619.303
3119.29318.919
3219.06218.532
3318.81818.227
3418.59417.928
3518.39817.520
3618.11217.195
3717.85916.873
3817.65616.574
3917.42716.329
4017.21716.009
4117.02915.701
4216.82915.473
4316.57115.282
4416.38515.021
4516.15014.786
4615.96214.525
4715.77114.289
4815.56513.982
4915.36513.751
5015.15813.502
5114.93713.277
5214.77713.052
5314.59912.790
5414.40212.540
5514.24612.288
5614.08811.983
5713.91311.804
5813.77811.623
5913.60911.425
6013.43611.166
6113.25810.909
6213.07110.722
6312.91510.547
6412.75110.334
6512.57410.168
6612.3809.998
6712.1639.841
6812.0179.636
6911.8299.425
7011.6609.274
7111.4959.068
7211.3178.903
7311.1118.709
7410.9508.537
7510.7538.346
7610.5768.175
7710.3627.989
7810.1297.818
799.9787.654
809.7587.439
819.5497.236
829.3457.044
839.1436.825
848.9436.641
858.7276.482
868.5006.267
878.2776.045
887.9565.865
897.6305.649
907.3405.408
917.0165.181
926.6714.912
936.3694.622
946.0554.265
955.7244.005
965.2613.702
974.7133.248
984.1422.843
993.1922.350


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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