Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera


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Historical and exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1964+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Sep6.7872.9974.9640.8984.70318.874
Sep-Oct12.9005.47211.2781.5318.33136.216
Sep-Nov17.3999.66214.2771.76511.77843.255

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1025.68831.271
2021.88625.705
3019.22422.097
4017.10518.784
5015.18215.983
6013.60913.127
7011.92210.644
8010.0858.141
907.8535.393

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
136.48645.433
233.39740.922
331.47139.151
430.14437.692
529.15536.610
628.40435.101
727.51234.035
826.82033.034
926.28132.030
1025.68831.271
1125.23330.638
1224.77729.934
1324.40729.396
1424.02628.854
1523.65828.254
1623.29827.774
1722.92727.209
1822.57726.629
1922.17826.114
2021.88625.705
2121.63725.308
2221.34024.862
2320.98024.549
2420.77624.089
2520.50223.798
2620.24723.547
2719.97423.163
2819.78022.855
2919.52322.496
3019.22422.097
3118.98121.730
3218.78721.354
3318.62621.056
3418.41920.760
3518.24420.351
3618.01520.021
3717.78419.690
3817.54519.380
3917.33219.123
4017.10518.784
4116.92018.454
4216.71418.207
4316.50917.999
4416.33017.711
4516.13317.451
4615.95017.159
4715.75216.892
4815.55516.541
4915.37616.274
5015.18215.983
5115.02215.718
5214.87815.452
5314.69715.138
5414.55914.836
5514.39214.529
5614.23014.153
5714.08113.930
5813.93413.704
5913.77913.455
6013.60913.127
6113.44812.797
6213.30212.556
6313.15212.329
6413.00312.051
6512.81511.833
6612.67811.610
6712.49011.401
6812.31011.128
6912.12510.847
7011.92210.644
7111.70210.366
7211.51310.143
7311.3489.880
7411.1649.645
7511.0079.385
7610.8409.151
7710.6538.897
7810.4698.662
7910.2788.436
8010.0858.141
819.8467.863
829.6597.599
839.4507.300
849.2137.049
859.0006.832
868.7616.541
878.5816.241
888.3616.000
898.1455.712
907.8535.393
917.5935.097
927.2964.749
936.9754.382
946.5733.939
956.1703.625
965.7243.266
975.1972.752
984.6242.317
993.8291.820


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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