Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera


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Historical and exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1964+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1968) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Feb1.7713.3100.8830.0781.8393.310
Feb-Mar3.71426.7411.8270.1645.36926.741
Feb-Apr5.89030.9652.4630.3186.46530.965

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.80711.504
205.5917.654
304.3695.731
403.4974.324
502.8013.359
602.2372.547
701.7441.953
801.2801.433
900.7940.927

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
115.46625.026
212.87320.340
311.63518.570
410.58417.151
59.97316.126
69.35414.741
78.85613.797
88.42812.940
98.11612.110
107.80711.504
117.47011.012
127.21310.481
136.86710.087
146.6199.699
156.4219.283
166.2418.958
176.0558.587
185.8828.218
195.7337.900
205.5917.654
215.4307.421
225.2857.166
235.1606.990
245.0286.739
254.8976.584
264.7866.452
274.6776.254
284.5586.099
294.4785.922
304.3695.731
314.2715.559
324.1585.388
334.0675.254
343.9895.125
353.8964.950
363.7894.813
373.7024.678
383.6254.554
393.5604.453
403.4974.324
413.4004.200
423.3304.110
433.2654.034
443.1963.932
453.1283.841
463.0703.741
472.9883.652
482.9323.537
492.8623.451
502.8013.359
512.7283.277
522.6763.196
532.6103.103
542.5523.015
552.4902.927
562.4412.822
572.3902.760
582.3472.699
592.2852.633
602.2372.547
612.1822.463
622.1252.402
632.0782.347
642.0252.279
651.9792.226
661.9342.174
671.8852.125
681.8432.062
691.7871.998
701.7441.953
711.7061.892
721.6701.843
731.6241.787
741.5831.737
751.5221.683
761.4741.635
771.4161.583
781.3671.536
791.3221.491
801.2801.433
811.2241.379
821.1751.329
831.1351.272
841.0901.225
851.0391.185
860.9911.132
870.9411.077
880.8941.034
890.8510.983
900.7940.927
910.7330.875
920.6820.815
930.6000.751
940.5420.676
950.4740.623
960.4080.562
970.3190.476
980.2100.403
990.0560.320


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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