Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera


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Historical and exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1964+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jul4.0405.3832.2540.5192.69611.094
Jul-Aug9.43810.3006.4301.0866.58633.677
Jul-Sep16.18715.26414.5131.98411.40852.551

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1022.13930.448
2018.38323.332
3015.80819.303
4013.77016.009
5012.03813.502
6010.51211.166
709.0329.274
807.4537.439
905.4125.408

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
136.63152.329
232.15644.929
329.48642.113
427.71439.839
526.43538.182
625.15035.917
724.25534.354
823.44432.914
922.70231.498
1022.13930.448
1121.64929.586
1221.06528.643
1320.64427.933
1420.22727.228
1519.88626.458
1619.58725.852
1719.31125.149
1819.00924.438
1918.71823.817
2018.38323.332
2118.12322.865
2217.84722.349
2317.57821.989
2417.31321.469
2517.00821.144
2616.70420.866
2716.51120.444
2816.21820.111
2916.02019.725
3015.80819.303
3115.55718.919
3215.30618.532
3315.10818.227
3414.92617.928
3514.77017.520
3614.60517.195
3714.37316.873
3814.17416.574
3913.97616.329
4013.77016.009
4113.56815.701
4213.44115.473
4313.23815.282
4413.01715.021
4512.83314.786
4612.69414.525
4712.55014.289
4812.39813.982
4912.19013.751
5012.03813.502
5111.84113.277
5211.70813.052
5311.57112.790
5411.41212.540
5511.25612.288
5611.14311.983
5710.96811.804
5810.81411.623
5910.69211.425
6010.51211.166
6110.36210.909
6210.24410.722
6310.11210.547
649.97010.334
659.79010.168
669.6419.998
679.4849.841
689.3499.636
699.2099.425
709.0329.274
718.9129.068
728.7278.903
738.5508.709
748.4128.537
758.2738.346
768.0998.175
777.9617.989
787.7977.818
797.6227.654
807.4537.439
817.2857.236
827.1067.044
836.9476.825
846.7416.641
856.5336.482
866.3516.267
876.1906.045
886.0225.865
895.6685.649
905.4125.408
915.1055.181
924.8604.912
934.6104.622
944.3224.265
954.0644.005
963.6873.702
973.2383.248
982.6332.843
991.9272.350


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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