Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera


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Historical and exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1964+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Sep6.7494.9648.0830.8984.82218.874
Sep-Oct12.86711.27810.9951.5318.86236.216
Sep-Nov17.33614.27713.4791.76512.53143.255

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1026.77231.271
2022.85025.705
3020.23422.097
4018.02018.784
5016.05015.983
6014.26413.127
7012.52110.644
8010.6578.141
908.4245.393

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
138.00045.433
234.84340.922
332.63039.151
431.43537.692
530.30536.610
629.38535.101
728.59634.035
827.91333.034
927.23032.030
1026.77231.271
1126.32930.638
1225.76929.934
1325.28729.396
1425.02428.854
1524.66328.254
1624.26927.774
1723.91227.209
1823.56226.629
1923.18426.114
2022.85025.705
2122.52725.308
2222.21024.862
2321.90624.549
2421.66524.089
2521.45223.798
2621.19723.547
2720.98023.163
2820.73422.855
2920.53122.496
3020.23422.097
3120.02721.730
3219.79021.354
3319.57621.056
3419.32620.760
3519.11820.351
3618.92620.021
3718.68719.690
3818.47419.380
3918.25019.123
4018.02018.784
4117.80818.454
4217.61518.207
4317.38017.999
4417.18217.711
4517.00117.451
4616.78417.159
4716.56216.892
4816.36616.541
4916.19316.274
5016.05015.983
5115.88815.718
5215.69915.452
5315.47515.138
5415.32714.836
5515.15614.529
5614.98514.153
5714.80313.930
5814.65213.704
5914.48913.455
6014.26413.127
6114.10612.797
6213.95012.556
6313.78512.329
6413.61912.051
6513.46011.833
6613.25711.610
6713.10811.401
6812.87011.128
6912.68310.847
7012.52110.644
7112.37010.366
7212.18610.143
7312.0369.880
7411.8679.645
7511.6709.385
7611.5299.151
7711.2938.897
7811.1078.662
7910.8978.436
8010.6578.141
8110.4337.863
8210.2067.599
8310.0127.300
849.7887.049
859.6346.832
869.3706.541
879.0816.241
888.9046.000
898.6465.712
908.4245.393
918.1795.097
927.8594.749
937.4964.382
947.1583.939
956.7173.625
966.1453.266
975.6372.752
985.0032.317
994.0361.820


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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