Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera


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Historical and exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1964+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Nov4.4692.9992.4840.2343.6698.791
Nov-Dec8.0014.7183.5950.3328.15324.123
Nov-Jan10.1855.5594.0460.3939.97631.090

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1015.70020.208
2012.70615.315
3010.52012.473
408.79210.113
507.3298.301
606.2016.605
705.0875.231
803.8873.903
902.5672.447

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
124.92534.459
222.43229.738
320.78527.920
419.45126.441
518.69425.357
617.91423.865
717.15922.828
816.70921.867
916.13820.917
1015.70020.208
1115.33119.624
1214.94918.982
1314.59718.498
1414.17818.014
1513.94017.485
1613.65417.067
1713.38116.580
1813.14916.087
1912.90515.655
2012.70615.315
2112.44314.989
2212.20014.627
2311.95514.374
2411.72014.007
2511.50913.778
2611.30613.582
2711.09013.283
2810.88513.047
2910.71512.773
3010.52012.473
3110.32912.200
3210.12811.923
339.89911.705
349.73111.491
359.56211.199
369.38610.966
379.21810.735
389.07710.520
398.95110.344
408.79210.113
418.6529.891
428.5219.727
438.3669.589
448.2139.400
458.0649.231
467.9189.042
477.7928.871
487.6588.649
497.5318.481
507.3298.301
517.2138.137
527.1107.974
536.9987.784
546.8827.603
556.7617.420
566.6407.198
576.5307.068
586.4046.937
596.2996.793
606.2016.605
616.1026.418
625.9966.282
635.8806.155
645.7626.000
655.6555.879
665.5065.757
675.4115.642
685.2865.493
695.1845.340
705.0875.231
714.9585.081
724.8554.962
734.7604.822
744.6584.697
754.5244.558
764.3564.435
774.2414.301
784.1224.177
793.9974.058
803.8873.903
813.7603.757
823.6383.619
833.5133.461
843.3993.329
853.2913.215
863.1423.061
872.9752.902
882.8392.774
892.6872.619
902.5672.447
912.4382.286
922.2592.095
932.0711.890
941.8691.638
951.6971.456
961.5261.243
971.3210.927
981.0780.647
990.6790.308


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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