Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera



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Historical and exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera ( Mar 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1964+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1998) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Mar1.9220.9440.9200.1093.55823.431
Mar-Apr4.0671.5813.1070.3444.66727.656
Mar-May6.0292.2914.2880.6415.61730.638

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
109.04111.445
206.4957.647
305.0335.843
404.0244.530
503.3083.620
602.6782.838
702.1402.250
801.5871.717
901.0391.175

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
118.21329.279
215.20322.131
313.57619.710
412.37817.880
511.54016.615
610.82914.978
710.26513.909
89.74512.967
99.34112.079
109.04111.445
118.68910.939
128.41910.400
138.07010.006
147.7689.622
157.4859.212
167.2138.897
177.0498.538
186.8398.183
196.6457.880
206.4957.647
216.3527.426
226.1177.185
235.9637.020
245.8186.784
255.6766.639
265.5726.516
275.4396.331
285.2946.187
295.1606.022
305.0335.843
314.9415.683
324.8395.523
334.7405.399
344.6285.279
354.5345.116
364.4324.988
374.3294.862
384.2104.746
394.1164.652
404.0244.530
413.9474.415
423.8494.330
433.7874.259
443.7164.163
453.6464.077
463.5613.983
473.4983.898
483.4283.789
493.3723.708
503.3083.620
513.2283.542
523.1613.465
533.0693.375
542.9983.291
552.9423.206
562.8783.105
572.8283.046
582.7732.986
592.7222.922
602.6782.838
612.6212.756
622.5592.696
632.5062.641
642.4522.574
652.4092.523
662.3672.470
672.2922.422
682.2422.359
692.1962.295
702.1402.250
712.0702.188
722.0192.139
731.9772.082
741.9292.031
751.8561.976
761.7971.926
771.7491.873
781.6931.824
791.6401.778
801.5871.717
811.5331.661
821.4731.608
831.4191.548
841.3751.499
851.3181.456
861.2501.399
871.2031.340
881.1601.293
891.1111.237
901.0391.175
910.9811.118
920.8941.051
930.8230.980
940.7680.894
950.6830.832
960.6120.762
970.5020.659
980.3780.570
990.1690.466


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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