Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera


  • Jan

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Historical and exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera ( Jan 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1964+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1968) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Jan2.1660.8410.4510.3161.8233.037
Jan-Feb3.9191.7230.8180.3943.6536.347
Jan-Mar5.8422.6671.7330.4807.21129.778

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
106.71110.589
205.0407.293
304.0725.670
403.3994.460
502.7973.605
602.3452.858
701.9292.287
801.4841.762
900.9791.216

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
113.41324.412
210.90419.141
39.82717.284
49.02515.851
58.44214.846
67.95313.524
77.54612.648
87.18411.868
96.93611.124
106.71110.589
116.47910.159
126.2709.698
136.0609.358
145.8849.026
155.6958.671
165.5428.395
175.3558.081
185.2507.768
195.1527.500
205.0407.293
214.9347.096
224.8236.882
234.7196.734
244.5886.522
254.4886.391
264.4036.280
274.3116.113
284.2305.982
294.1625.832
304.0725.670
314.0115.523
323.9345.377
333.8615.263
343.7965.152
353.7145.002
363.6414.884
373.5674.767
383.5214.660
393.4614.573
403.3994.460
413.3414.352
423.2704.273
433.2234.206
443.1574.116
453.1024.036
463.0363.947
472.9833.868
482.9153.765
492.8553.688
502.7973.605
512.7433.531
522.6873.458
532.6543.373
542.6143.292
552.5653.211
562.5213.114
572.4733.058
582.4313.001
592.3892.939
602.3452.858
612.3102.779
622.2732.721
632.2262.668
642.1782.603
652.1352.553
662.0902.502
672.0542.455
682.0102.394
691.9672.331
701.9292.287
711.8822.226
721.8452.178
731.7962.122
741.7512.072
751.7162.018
761.6661.969
771.6251.916
781.5861.868
791.5401.822
801.4841.762
811.4431.706
821.3891.653
831.3291.593
841.2811.543
851.2281.500
861.1811.442
871.1331.383
881.0901.336
891.0331.279
900.9791.216
910.9251.158
920.8701.089
930.8161.016
940.7520.927
950.6630.863
960.5720.789
970.4540.681
980.3560.587
990.2210.476


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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